CatZinfo – Dried Fruits and nuts
The markets for the new crops are in full swing and rather volatile due to other outcomes than expected. The contents of the message is depending whether the source is on the supply- or demand side. Also on the spot markets there is a lot of activity now the high season is just a few months away and buyers start to prepare productions. Hpwever most products out of the new crop are not yet available. As reported before, in general, stock levels are low as anticipated good crops had caused a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude. Spot goods have to be paid for!
Also the euro/dollar, which touched the 1,20 this week, is volatile and meanwhile back in the 1,17 area.
Apricots, being one of the earliest crops in the Mediterranean, have come into a less hectic status. First shipments have arrived in Northern Europe and the urgent need for the first shipments has faded somewhat. Prices have firmed quite a bit, when it became clear that though the crop is big, the percentage of really good quality is low, due to damage to the trees. A lot of speckled fruits will be part of this year’s crop and will bring a lot of quality issues in case of ‘unbelievable’ low offers.
Tight stock situations waiting for the arrivals of the new crop apples from China. Prices continue at the same level as closed last season. Traditionally however we see prices increase during the season, as costs of cold stores have to be taken into account during the season. Chile is sold more or less and on a much higher level some quantities still can be obtained.
Heading towards the end of the year, demand in relation with the Asian Festivals is substantial and prices have firmed again. Bottleneck for Europe is the limited availability in the warehouses for immediate sales. Remarkable is the complete absence of broken bananachips from the Philippines, as no shipper is offering at the moment.
Shippers in USA hope and pray the limitation of production and export will be supported by the authorities – which did not yet give the green light -, so prices may come at least in a slight upward trend to make the industry at last somewhat more profitable.
The crop in Greece is said to be only about 15.000 tons. This is 20% less than last year and way below the 25/30K we have seen some years ago.
South Africa is growing its quantity, but cannot fill the gap the Greek leave behind.
The shipments are coming off somewhat more smoothly and we may see in October somewhat less tension on the spot market.
Crops are satisfactory and no major problems are foreseen. Some of the ‘smaller’ product like mango and coconut remain problematic.
Prices for Chilean prunes are steadily rising now more and more packers are sold on certain sizes (especially the bigger ones). Nevertheless still way below the Californian prices, though a bigger crop has reduced these Californian prices, so from a real competition we cannot speak yet.
The most exciting news comes from the Californian market. Rains have spoiled a lot of product lying on the drying field an prices have firmed by 25/30% and still going. Buyers have tried to cover at alternative sources, but their quantities where limited and for example the South African uncommitted stocks were sold in a few days after the news came from California.
Turkey is having a good crop and has been dried under good sunny conditions. Prices firmed after State Buying (TMO) stepped in the market at higher than expected levels. This gave courage to the farmers to hold back and offer hardly any quantities at the Boursa. Further price developments we only expect along the fluctuations of the Turkish Lira against the Dollar. Iranian prices are listed slightly below the Turkish levels.
Chile is offering all types except the Jumbo Goldens, which for once in history seem to be really sold in Chile…..
The market in California is depending on the person you speak. Some are pessimistic about the size (the estimation was too high and actual crop will be less) and point to the high temperatures (even tomorrow close to 37C) which must have caused a lot of sunburn.
Others have been in the fields and are surprised about the number of light coloured walnuts and point to the fact the Chandler crop still has to begin.
Objective we can report the crop will be late by 7 to 10 days and prices have firmed, as demand is good. Buyers need to fill the pipelines as spot material in Europe is scarce. But also other markets like Asia and the Pacific Rim seem to be demanding, especially for the first shipments, arriving before December at destination.
We think till the end of the year we may see a firm market. In case sales go well, the Californian shippers may look at well filled bank accounts and will see no need to sell at discounted prices for the rest of the season. A strategy thy have learned in the recent years and was executed perfectly.