CatZinfo dried fruits & nuts
At the moment many of us are enjoying the holidays and trade is somewhat slow. On the other hand, for those still ‘on duty’, there are less hands to do the same job.
All over the world sellers and buyers take precautions to be safeguarded for implications as a result of the “trade war” started by Mr. Trump. Now other markets are striking back, new and additional import tariffs may be an unpleasant surprise for importers. We already see a change in streams of agricultural products. For example a 120% tariff on the import of walnuts in India, obviously let Indian buyers go for ‘domestic’ rather than import from California. So we may see some major shifts in demand from various markets, which finally may result in price developments.
The situation of the crops on the Northern Hemisphere becomes more and more clear. Some crops already started to be harvested, so quantity and quality can be assessed with more accuracy.
The euro against the dollar has been more or less stable in the last weeks, ranging between 1,16 and 1,18.
The 2018 season is on: harvesting and drying have started and first parcels arrived at the local market in Malatya. Prices in Turkish Lira are high but due to the weak rate against the dollar export prices will be within recent levels. Anyhow the volatile Turkish Lira will play an important role in the coming season. Certainly for good quality material, we expect prices to remain steady to firm. Reason being the higher percentage (up to 50%) of speckled fruit due to the rains in May and first half of June. Most probably somewhat more naturals will be on the market as these can hide the hail spots and may be even cheaper priced.
There is not much stock of apples now and the market goes up sharply. It is to be expected the new crop will be at higher level and the supply quantity will be decreased. The reasons are the output of new crop apple decreased much due to bad weather conditions during blooming and the Chinese environmental protection, which makes factories can’t continue processing. Stocks in Europe are limited and new crop will only arrive in October/November in Europe.
The market has firmed somewhat due to the limited supply which cannot keep pace with demand. Factories are fully booked and meanwhile the lead time for new orders has increased to about 2 months. We recommend strongly to have a look at your needs for the winter period in order not to be dependent on the (tight) second hand market at the end of this year.
Prices remain firm with limited offers from origin.
It is difficult to assess the size of the Greek new crop. The diminishing number of farmers cultivating currants will undoubtfully add to again a smaller crop in Greece. Perhaps a ‘heavy’ crop may compensate somewhat, but for sure prices will remain firm.
Certainly in an empty market and a traditional peak in demand for the Christmas period, anyhow first shipments from the new crop will be sold at a premium.
South Africa is sold completely and only some small parcels are around free available.
For papaya the season is over end new crop will arrive in October, so we may see some price increases in the coming months.
Pineapple is stable whereas mango is in short supply and sold at higher price levels.
Demand slowed down, but in view of the Chilean industry having sold well, prices remain stable as exporters not yet nervous and confident they will sell out before the European winter.
The Turkish crop will be about 15% less than last year, but quality looks good and most probably one week ahead compared with last year. Price in the local market are higher but compensated by the weak Turkish Lira. California is relatively expensive and by far the most expensive origin for Thompsons. Even the available position of South African Thompson in the second hand are offered cheaper. South African shippers are sold except for some limited loads of goldens and less popular varieties. Chili offer their last stocks of jumbo raisins at slightly discounted prices. Demand for jumbo goldens faded at the current high levels.
It is definitely a buyer’s market: weaker prices for the remainder of the 2017 crop from California made buyers reluctant to buy other than some hand-to-mouth buying. Also the first speculative and lower offers for the crop 2018 do not encounter much enthusiasm amongst buyers and not much forward buying has been reported so far.
Consequently also the Chilean exporters had to drop their prices in order to adjust the gap between Californian and Chilean prices at an acceptable distance.