Now the heat in Northern Europe for time being stepped down somewhat, we hope to see trade to become more active. However it is not only the temperature which has slowed down trade, but most and for all ‘external’ factors.
As mentioned before the trade war started by Mr. Trump has caused a lot of uncertainty amongst traders. What will happen if China will put sanction tariffs as a revenge on agricultural products? Will these portion be sold in Europe at discounted prices?
Next issue is the sanctions on trade with Iran. Certainly Europe is buying f.e. pistachios and sultanas in Iran. For which an alternative shall have to be found now it becomes practically impossible to do business with Iranian shippers.
Another element is the fall of the Turkish Lira, which passed today (10th Aug) the US$/YTL 6.60 threshold, meaning an almost 90% deprecation in the last 12 months, but in the last week alone it lost 30%! Around 17.00 hours today it dropped back to 6,36, but for sure this will have its impact on the prices for Turkish products.
The dollar against the Euro remained pretty stable in the last weeks, but today went below 1,15 suddenly.
Actually prices for Turkish apricots are up, but on the local market. Of course the weak Turkish Lira has caused declining export prices quoted in dollars (or Euros). The crop has almost ended and the quantity for sure is much more (120/130K) than the careful (and ‘strategic’) estimation of the Chamber of Commerce (80K). Also a carry out of 20 to 30K will make supply sufficient. Average size is between 3 and 4 , however with a higher percentage of speckled fruit, due to rain- and hail damage earlier in the season, This will be good news for the ‘industrial’ qualities, which will be abundant available
Usually the first offers for the new crop from China are around. However an empty marketplace, both in China as in the buying markets, made shippers cautious to open the new season offering. On top the uncertainty of the environmental measurements the Chinese government has announced, which may be dramatic for some factories. The market in Europe is very tight and we foresee some firmer pricing both on the spot as well as for the opening prices from China.
The market has firmed somewhat due to the limited supply which cannot keep pace with demand. Factories are fully booked and meanwhile the lead time for new orders has increased to about 2 months. We recommend strongly to have a look at your needs for the winter period in order not to be dependent on the (tight) second hand market at the end of this year.
The cranberry industry was successful in raising the prices. Question now will be: can they maintain this lever, or will a lower consumption also mean again weaker prices. Fact remains part of the measurements taken were ‘artificial” (self-controlled retention of stocks), but on the other hand a number of farmers will choose for other cultivars, which will perhaps bring down supply.
The Greek industry is not yet willing to give prices. They predict a difficult market as stocks are none to zero in Greece and spot market in Europe is overheated as well. Furthermore the crop will be late as harvest has not yet started at this time.
Unchanged levels for most tropical fruits as we are in between the harvest period of most products.
Not much activity to report on the prunes. Demand is slow and on the other hand most Chilean shippers have sold well, so are not too greedy to bring product on the market. With more than half a year to go they are confident to sell out well before the end of this year.
Prices are stable.
California still too high to be a serious competitor on the European market.
Though the Turkish currency is helping to make prices somewhat more attractive, actually the market in Turkey is firm. Reason being the smaller crop as well as the expectation more farmers have chosen for the Thompson type in view of the higher prices for this type. Certainly when the Turkish Lira will gain value, we may see some firming of the sultana prices.
Also the ban on the Iranian product will make this country not to be able to compete at least not in the Western World with Turkish product.
South Africa only has some goldens and less popular varieties to sell.
Prices for Thompsons remain firm as most probably California will not be able to increase supply. On the contrary expectations are even of again a smaller crop.
Available quantities in Europe are sold at gradually firmer prices.
Chile has apart from jumbo goldens still possibilities for jumbo flames and Thompsons, though they keep the prices at same level, knowing world market for raisins will be tight for another year at least
The crop estimation was positive with 700K tons, being more than last season. So it was not a surprise prices came down. Most Californian shippers have sold well, so are not in need to sell at any price even now the new crop is around the corner. On the other hand: “sold well” means that stocks a.o. in Europe are sufficient, so in turn demand is also low. We expected market will start to move only when harvest will start or extreme weather will occur.
Chile had to give in as well somewhat on the prices.