The final has begun! The last month with traditionally heavy sales is ahead. Actually for already several weeks we noticed more activities, especially for the short term coverings. With most economies doing well, everybody is optimistic the last weeks of the year will make it up for the quiet summer period. Some problems occur, such as delayed shipments not able to reach well in time the European market. This one is rather tight on stocks due to the wait-and-see attitude after weakening prices before and during the crops. Meanwhile we see prices firming of most products in our line of business, simply because demand is strong and hope the tensions between USA and other countries will fade away. In this case we expect demand from f.e. China and Turkey for Californian products will be back to normal. The dollar gradually is weaker against the euro and lost some ground yesterday by about 1%.
The farmers decided to ‘sit’ on their apricots for time being, so supply to the local market is tight. Also we see the Turkish Lira gaining value against the US-dollar with another 4 to 5% since our latest report, clearly not helping to soften the prices. During the season we expect basically supply will be sufficient to meet demand. We may see however a firmer market due to the previously described elements. Though it can go either way, problems during or after bloom (frost) may on top also feed the bullish sentiment. Of course a prosperous development of the new crop may bring back the market in more quiet waters
The market for Chinese apples remains difficult and firm. Shipments are late due to a difficult start of the season. Meanwhile stocks in Europe are none to zero. It remains to be seen how contractual obligations will be honoured as we do expect to see some defaults from origin. Alternatives like Chile and Italy are still way more expensive.
Prices stable to firm as local demand is putting pressure on the availability of the green bananas and forces the producers to pay more for the raw material. Coming festivals in Asia traditionally cause heavy demand as well, so we advise to have a look at your needs for the coming period.
Prices definitely have left the low levels and firmed considerably. Meanwhile prices are a bit more stable.
The smaller crop has of course firmed the prices. Meanwhile some more producers are offering, but due to the delayed sales, supply has been minimal in a period of usually strong demand for the Christmas-season. So on the spot there is not much available and prices for immediate delivery are very firm as well. Though South-Africa crop will be better than last year’s disaster crop, it will only be a 3000 tons (according to today’s estimation), this will not be enough for a structural lower pricing of currants.
The pineapple crop is expected to be a little smaller, but pricewise stable. Further developments will depend on the demand of the canning factories and what will be the competition on the buying side of the raw material. For papaya the market is a little more complex: the crop being smaller as well, but demand will be bigger as both canneries and dehydration processors are looking for GMO-free product. We may see some shortages towards the end of the season. Except for mango, which will be a little short as well, we expect other tropicals to remain stable.
We are in the in-between period as far as Chilean prunes are concerned. Prices are same for weeks already and some last loads are changing hands before we start discussing new crop 2019. The blossom has passed without any problems and a normal crop is ahead. It is too early to have offers, but if no surprises we suppose a continuation of current prices is likely.
The Turkish sultana farmers are reluctant to bring their product to the market. Same as with the apricots, they expect better prices in near future. Needless to say in combination with the stronger Turkish Lira, export prices are firming at the moment. Also there is lack of Iranian competition due to the sanctions, as well as caused by the measurements of the Iranian government to exchange foreign currencies at a fixed rate for the local Rial. California succeeds to maintain the high level for their Thompson raisins and until the South Africans will be on the market, we do not see any changes. Having said that, obviously the opening prices for South African product will likely be close to the Californian prices. If not from a commercial point of view, it are the farmers hearing good prices for Thompsons in the market, so processors shall have to pay a good price to get product in. The good prices for Thompsons may be the reason less farmers will opt for drying as goldens, being a more risky production. The new crop looks good but no prices available yet. The same applies for the Chilean new crop.
The lower prices for the Californian walnuts do meet some resistance and it seems we have reach a bottom (for time being). Shipments have been late, but now getting full throttle. This is giving some confidence to the Californian industry and we will not be surprised when next week the shipment figures will be announced, with November of course having strong numbers, we may see an upward trend again. For inshells we saw already a slight increase, as it seems Turkey is getting back on he market now political tensions are decreasing. Chile has left some lower end quantities and already looking for next season, where they shall have to move another record crop (subject good weather conditions).