CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS & WALNUTS
Anuga is around the corner and most of our readers will be present next week we suppose. We will be happy to meet as agreed or by visiting booths or meet in the corridors.
Most buyers are still very prudent to engage on long term contracts in view of the uncertain political situations worldwide.
The unexpected tariffs imposed by the government of Mr. Trump as well as the outcome of Brexit makes many cautious to take decisions.
The dollar has firmed against the Euro and made calculations somewhat disappointing.
Most markets are ‘flat’ with some exceptions due to disappointing outcome of the crops.
Demand for Turkish apricots is hesitant. Prices were expected to increase but the limited demand did prevent prices to increase, at least for the conventional apricots.
A different story for the natural and organic product.
Both are in short supply and especially strong demand for the organic, has caused a substantial higher price for the non-conventional apricots.
The Turkish Lira was somewhat firming, but in the last few days was weakening again.
Nevertheless we think positions still have to be covered and we may see together with colder weather an increase in demand, resulting in a somewhat firmer market.
The prices for Chinese apples are certainly somewhat lower than last year’s season. However new instructions from the Chinese government to protect the environment makes it more difficult for the producers to run full speed.
Taken into consideration the shutdown of some factories, resulting in less suppliers, we do not foresee a dramatic decrease of prices.
For the short term the situation is difficult: the stocks in Europe are low and the first shipments are fully booked and will only bring some relief t the end of this year, as shipments only will start in October.
The problem for banana chips is not especially a lack of bananas, but most and for all the domestic demand in the Philippines.
Prices for food have risen considerably and this makes bananas a relative cheap product for the people.
Due to this, we see prices firm again and with the coming festivals in Asia at the beginning of 2020, a firm market may be expected.
Spot material is scarce and expensive.
In general prices for currants are more attractive than last year, but in view of traditional demand for Christmas, Greek shippers at the moment have no ‘promotions’ for their products.
The European market is rather empty for pineapple and papaya and has to wait for the first shipments of the new crop.
These are expected to be shipped later this month, with arrival 2nd half November at the earliest.
In an empty market and strong demand for the winter period, prices will remain firm and for time being with a possible easing only early 2020 has to be expected.
The market is rather stable. Chilean shippers still have material to offer and most sizes still available.
However with still at least half a year to go till the new crop, supply may be limited in the coming months, so we foresee a somewhat upward trend in the near future.
Alternative sources like California and France have still higher ideas of pricing and mainly selling domestically and to die-hard fans of these origins.
Californian prices for natural Thompsons continue to soften, as exports are rather disappointing.
South Africa has sold somewhat more quantities due to a decrease in their prices, but still has some Thompsons for sale.
The goldens on the contrary are sold and in the second hand prices are firming.
We may well advise you to have a look for this product, as also Ramadan sales have to be covered out of this crop as new crop will only be available in April/May 2020.
The Turkish government has prescribed a minimum price (YTL 10,–/Kilo) for domestic sales at the Boursa.
This has helped somewhat, but to move the huge crop of over 300K tons, it will not help.
We therefor see in spite of these ‘regulations’ prices at a lower level in the market.
Reason being a.o. producers have more favourable paying conditions than the TARIS, the governmental buying office.
Chile is comfortably sold, certainly on goldens and also flames are getting scarce.
After the unexpected low objective estimation in California of 630K tons, prices increased rapidly.
Buyers did already bought some quantities for the first shipments and now are reluctant to cover at the higher prices for the later periods.
We may hence see an empty market for the period after Christmas.
Chile is close to be sold on the top end materials and prices remain firm. Certainly now California has lifted their prices, Chilean shippers see no need to discount.
Eastern European prices are still scarce, as in view of the developments in California, exporters are on hold as they do not want to enter the market too cheap.