Trade activities are improving. It seems stocks are getting at a lower level and in combination of the offers for new crops from the Southern Hemisphere we see more interest in the various products. For the European buyers the stronger euro against the dollar is helping somewhat to get renewed interest.
The harvesting of the crops in the southern part of the world has started or is about to start. The outlooks in general are good, though some light rains in the Upington-area, South-Africa, may temper the initial expectations for a good raisin crop.
Prices in general remain high as demand from other continents is still substantial. The strong Chinese currency is helping to maintain the strong demand from this country and make some shippers kind of arrogant towards their 'old' European customers.
Dried Fruit
Apricots
The market remains sluggish these days. Malatyan shippers try to pretend there is more demand, but we doubt. Not only the bigger apricots are relatively expensive, but we hear now also the smallest size (no. 8) is becoming rare due to big demand because of the low price compared to the bigger sizes. The prices for middle sized apricots are still negotiable, certainly when some spotted fruits are allowed.
Apples
First news from Chile points at a firmer market. Strong demand from the AJC-industry is driving up prices, as current level for fresh apples paid for is 30% higher compared to last year. Though no official prices for dried apples are on the market, obviously we may expect a further increase in prices.
From China no changes to report: prices remain high and good quality material is becoming more difficult to find, as due to the low EU sulpher tolerance, the product tends to become somewhat darker later in the season. Some shortages may be foreseen in autumn.
Bananas
The market is moving sideward. Demand remains slow, whereas the Philippine Peso is stronger against the US dollar and raw material prices (green bananas) increasing as well due to higher costs of energy and bad weather.
Cranberries
Due to the 'marvelous' ideas from Brussels to have a two-tier import Regulation for cranberries, most buyers are careful and waiting what will happen. Demand collapsed.
Currants
More and more shippers are sold already. Given the fact we still have 9 months to go till the new Greek crop will be available, prices can only go one direction. Perhaps South-African currants may ease the market a little, but quantity wise this will not be a large volume.
Pears/Peaches
The solo action from the Finnish customs to regard the - since many decades - imported pears and peaches as prohibited, has made most importers to stop bringing product on the market. As a consequence everybody is looking for alternatives, which at this time only can be found in the more expensive varieties and with a different taste and appearance. As Chinese manufacturers did already produce the product as usual, it will not be before autumn (new crop) till they can bring a product on the market complying to the official EU-Regulation.
Prunes
There is good demand for the new crop prunes from Chile. Where Argentina is again victim of bad weather conditions, which destroyed a larger part of the prune crop, Chile is having a good crop. Prices are more or less same as last year, making this product to be one of the cheapest dried fruits. We therefore expect prices only to increase and strongly advise to cover before sellers will realize sales are going well.
Raisins
The Turkish shippers are not selling much, but are increasing their prices due to the stronger position of the Turkish Lira against the dollar. Prices for sultanas are almost at par with Thompson prices, usually more expensive as drying Thompsons is more risk for the farmers. The Iranian prices show the opposite movement, because the Iranian currency is weaker and notwithstanding economic sanctions becoming a serious competitor for the Turkish exporters.
In spite of the fact the opening prices from South-Africa are lower than the current levels for Thompsons from California, the latter origin is convinced there will be a shortage towards the end of the season and even predict new crop (in September 2012!) will be even more expensive. Prices gradually are rising though also here substantial business is lacking.
Lack of business is also the word for Chile. The opening prices for the popular flames and goldens (jumbo) were similar to last year's but did not attract many buyer yet. We think however in view of other markets, these Chilean prices are by far the lowest in the raisin markets and it will be a matter of time before prices will be adapted to higher levels.
In South-Africa the crop is developing well and harvest has started. Some shippers already offered their new prices, which certainly for goldens are hard to digest, but traditionally the game will start when the most important and traditional shipper will enter the market.
Nuts
Walnuts
Gradually stocks are running idle and we notice somewhat more demand. Buyers obviously have (and will) wait as long as possible to replenish stocks at the current high prices for Californian walnuts. Those dedicated to the Californian origin meanwhile have accepted prices are high and other nuts are price wise not an alternative. Meanwhile some buyers have switched to the cheaper Eastern-European product, with a substantial price difference, but qualities are - to put it mild - sometimes varying. California does not care as the Chinese and Turkish buyers have bought and are still buying. With an estimated 80% of the crop sold and still 9 months to go, who cares what the poor Europeans think of it?