CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS AND WALNUTS
Before the summer holidays for most of us will start, we see quite some activities in trading.
Especially spot material of various products are in demand, but also contracts for a longer period for the Mediterranean products are engaging quite some interest.
The situation of most crops on the Northern Hemisphere is known and not likely to be changed anymore in view of the favourable weather forecasts.
In Turkey the renewed mayoral elections in Istanbul were again a victory for the opposition, but so far Mr. Erdogan remained calm and so did the Turkish Lira for time being.
Another unpredictable element for our trade is the conduct of the American president, changing with one tweet Trade Agreements with consequences for the established trade channels.
Therefor supply and demand are not the only elements in the markets, but more and more political issues bring as well uncertainty in our playing field.
So it is obvious: working with reliable partners may give peace of mind.
The total crop 2019 (harvesting began this week) is estimated at 100K+ and if we add the carry out of 20K of the current crop, there will be 120K+ available for the coming season.
This will mean a ‘normal’ quantity and no major changes are expected.
Of course the Turkish Lira is weaker than one year ago (-25% end June), on the other hand external cost elements (labour, transport, packing materials, financing, etc.) will be higher.
Quality is considered to be good and sizing rather evenly spread with an average size of nr 3. First shipments may depart in August.
Last lots of Chinese apples change hands at increased prices. Available quantities are minimal and as usual some darker material is around at the end of the season.
Origin is sold completely and the Chinese suppliers are not in a hurry to launch prices too early in this firm market.
First shipment will be at the earliest in October and we do not expect much weakening until the pipeline is filled again, under the assumption a normal crop will become available again.
No changes in the situation for the Philippine banana chips. Especially for the ‘wholes’ the situation is difficult, with some shippers not offering before November(!) shipment.
It goes without saying prices remain firm. For ‘brokens’ somewhat swifter shipments are possible, but obviously prices are following the higher levels for ‘wholes’.
We do not foresee any improvement until the first months of 2020.
The prices for the sweetened dried cranberries are unchanged. Availability of the conventional product is limited.
On the other hand sales to China are down grace to the tariffs imposed by the Chinese government in retaliation of the American protection measurements.
Greece having some odd containers available and South-Africa (as from the beginning) completely sold.
New crop in Greece developing well under good weather, but last year quite some damage was done by the hail storms in July and August.
For spot material prices remain firm and only after arrival of a (sound) new crop after September, we may see some relief.
The situation for the Thai tropical dehydrated fruits remains pretty unchanged. Core pineapple is not anymore available and this will still last a few months,
so we will have a serious shortages at least till after autumn, taking a 5 to 6 weeks transfer time into account as well.
Natural papaya is scarce as well but still limited available.
Other product no problems, but also not abundantly available, so prices still high for products like mango, guava and coconut.
The market is rather quiet. All together Chilean shippers still have product, but depending on the shipper they may be sold in a specific size.
Prices slowly increasing and we may well advise you to have a look at your needs till early 2020 when new crop from Chile will become available.
South-Africa is focused on selling their bigger quantity of natural Thompsons, as most farmers have chosen for this variety instead of goldens.
These are now sold at premium prices in the second hand as SA is sold on medium sized goldens.
The Californian new crop is developing well, though some adverse weather conditions may occur till the harvest in September.
Prices have eased not only because sales are slow, but also due to the lower prices competition from SA, with more quantity then ever in natural Thompsons.
After many years this time prices for Chilean prices are firming as there are really less raisins available. The popular jumbo flame has gained 10/15% in value and so did the jumbo golden variety, simply due to lack of material.
Turkey is heading for a good crop and the indications for the coming seasons are somewhat weaker prices, also helped by the weaker Lira of course. The crop is expected to be around 325K tons.
Iran has lost ground due to the American sanctions.
Though still allowed to trade food products from Iran, the threats of the USA towards shipping lines and banks to be blacklisted when facilitating trade with Iran, makes it in practice somewhat more difficult to build a steady line of supply.
With a somewhat lower shipment figure in May (-8%) prices remained unchanged as California has sold 80% of the total supply and your YTD figures are still +10%, so shippers feel comfortable for a smooth transition into the new crop.
Especially higher end qualities of light material are getting scarce and remain firm in pricing, whereas combo (darker) material will be discounted.
Also Chile is getting tight on the (extra) light material and prices remain steady.