CatZinfo

Of course at this moment our thoughts are with our Turkish friends, of which many are more than just business relations after so many years of our intensive business we do have in this country as well as our numerous visits especially in the Malatya region. This area (and city) has been hit as well seriously and the people we speak, all have one or more relatives or colleagues who did not survive or have lost their house.
Apart from the fact the human tragedy is more important and in peoples mind, also some factories have been damaged as well as the infrastructure like roads,
which makes it yet impossible to think about resuming live as normal.
A lot of assistance is needed and this being one of the reasons we have supported already last week financial aid through our Catz Charity Foundation to the Turkish people.
Now stocks (in general) are decreasing, we see somewhat more activity for a number of products. Buyers have been operating very careful on the buying side as first wish to sell their earlier bought positions.
On the supply side we see some disruption, f.e. obvious for the Turkish apricots, but also apples from China and banana chips from the Philippines encounter some
availability and production issues. Also the South-African raisin crop is not as abundant as thought and same applies for the stone fruits like apricots and pears.
We do see some firmer markets and for some it might be still in time to step in at the still relatively low levels (bananas and walnuts f.e.).

Dried Fruits

Apples
The situation for Chinese apples is getting more and more difficult. The factories cannot obtain enough and suitable apples to transform in dried product.
Being out of the market for many weeks already in the approach of Chinese New Year, it turns out there is hardly raw material available and most shippers are still withdrawn from the market. Obviously this has also affected the shipments of contractual agreed quantities, which at best will be shipped with delays. As a consequence supply to Europe will stagnate and it needs no explanation what will be the consequences.
If not for this reason, the rare indications for new quantities from China are rather high priced with increases of 20 to 25% compared to the beginning of the season.
With new crop 2023 only arriving in Europe earliest in December, we foresee some bottlenecks for the Chinese dried apple products for the coming year.
Apricots
Though the people in Malatya have more important matters to deal with at the moment, for sure there will be needed a future income for the people, of which apricots is one of the more important element in the Malatya region. At the moment it is not possible to ship any quantities from this area, so there might be some hick-ups in the supply chain.
Some exporters work from the Izmir-area, which has not been hit by the earthquake and as such exports from this area may give some relief. Most shippers are withdrawn but indications we received this week point to a firmer market with substantial higher prices asked for by the Turkish exporters. As it is (unfortunately for the people) still cold around Malatya, there are no signs of blooming yet.
The South African crop is rather disappointing due to the high humidity before and during drying. There will be only very limited quantities available and some shippers abstain until now from offering.
Banana chips
In the last weeks prices have firmed drastically due to lack of green bananas in combination with increased demand from China, where public live has been opened again – though with a severe COVID-outbreak. It means however for public places and family gatherings demand for the popular banana chips has increased substantially.
For Europe it is difficult to find suitable and approved lots in view of the required analyses. Of course these requirements do increase the cost price as needing a better selection of the raw materials (bananas and oil) as well as additional costs
for accredited analyses.
The lack of green bananas is mainly caused by the lower prices in the previous periods, causing more farmers to cultivate other agricultural products. Of course according to the economic cycles, farmers will return to bananas when prices increase, but it will take at least 9 months after planting new banana fields until they give ripe and enough bananas. Therefor we expect certainly till end of this year we shall have a ride to the top and may well advise to have a look at your needs at least till the winter period.

Pears/Peaches
First offers from South Africa indeed are above last year’s levels. The quality is looking good, but will be smaller due to adverse weather conditions at the end of 2022.
The higher inflation figures coupled to higher costs for minimum wages in the agricultural sector have caused higher production costs as well. Not all shippers/exporters have offered yet.

Pineapple/Papaya
Unchanged situations with most fruits ‘normal’ but papaya remaining a problem.
Orders for papaya only accepted in combination with other fruits.

Prunes
Chile is selling out some leftovers and preparing for the new campaign. Actually offers for the new crop are still limited and show a continuation of last year’s levels. We have seen and expect as well an increasing demand for prunes, as other fruits have showed heavy price increases. We expect serious pricing in the next weeks.
Californian levels way higher.

Raisins
Focus on the new crops from the Southern Hemisphere.
South Africa reports an even lower crop than a few weeks ago. Initially a crop of 78K was expected, later on adapted to 70K, but meanwhile estimated somewhere in the low 60K. The quality is close to perfect and there will be somewhat more golden available, as most farmers have produced more goldens in view of last year’s higher prices. Prices for goldens remain in the higher levels as the market is completely empty. Spot material is hardly available anymore. Prices for Thompsons remain attractive at similar levels as last year.
From Chile we hear the crop will be normal. The genuine flames will be less, as farmer go for other cultivars more favorable for the fresh market and the wineries. Jumbo goldens remain scarce and expensive.
Prices for Turkish sultanas remain stable at the meanwhile somewhat higher levels.

Nuts

Walnuts
In spite of slightly higher export figures from California for January, the market remains inactive. Though genuine light material is becoming somewhat more scarce, the total available (unsold) quantity is still huge.
Meanwhile we get confirmation some farmers are pulling trees as at the current price levels it makes no sense to grow walnuts, as sales price is below costs.
For sure we will see the famous economic cycle work and in future supply will be decreased and prices firm.
The question is: when? In view of the current stocks, not immediately, but towards the end of this season in transition to the new crop, we may see some changes.
It is too early to have an educated guess about the Chilean crop. For sure they shall have to forget the last year’s levels in order to be competitive and they also shall have to move a heavy crop, which will not work with high prices.