CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS AND WALNUTS

Meanwhile we are waiting for the outcome of the crops in the Northern Hemisphere, in Türkiye the crops have suffered from some night frost earlier with some damage.
In California, the crops seem to develop reasonable.
The elections in Türkiye have brought victory to president Erdogan, which however did weaken the Turkish Lira further.
Question remains whether the support for the agricultural sector will remain, now the votes have been counted.
The dollar has firmed against the euro, which made prices in euro’s more expensive, in an environment of inflation which does not help to soften the levels of imported products.

Dried Fruits

Apples
The stocks for Chinese dried apples are getting rather scarce. From China there are only limited offers still on the market, but at premium prices.
Obviously, also prices in the second hand in Europe are firm for the limited free available quantities.
It is too early to say anything about the new crop 2023, but for sure in an empty market, first offer for early shipment will be on the high side anyhow.
This means we will not see any bargains till the end of the year.

Apricots
The prices for Turkish apricots have firmed in spite of the weak Turkish Lira. Carry out will be manageable and with strong demand from packers, farmers and speculators still holding quantities are holding back and driving up the prices.
New crop is anticipated to be more or less same (80/90K tons) which does not help to bring more quantities on the market.
With current high prices demand will be slowed down and may slightly correct these higher levels.
The crop will start next month and depending on the weather conditions at pre-harvest and drying this might be a game changer.

Banana chips
The market for banana chips is simply firm. Demand from the Chinese market is back to normal after the COVID related issues slowing down consumption.
As supply of green bananas is limited, it is a logical consequence prices are firming. Next to this, shipments are delayed and factories fully booked with shipments. Quotations for new contracts are given only for shipments earliest July/Aug at the moment. We do not see any improvement till autumn and recommend to have a look at your needs till end of this year. Also in view of the phenomenon “El Niño” which is expected to have a severe effect (drought) in the Philippines (and other parts of the world). According to the weather forecasts, El Niño is expected to ‘start’ somewhere between June and August.

Pears/Peaches
The crop of South African pears has been sold. Shipments are delayed because of the higher humidity and causing longer drying periods. only some industrial qualities are on offer.
For peaches there is still some availability, but less popular than the pears.

Pineapple/Papaya
Also pineapple is getting scarce at the moment and new crop will only bring relief after Oct/Nov.
Papaya remains short already the whole season and shippers only offer a few tons per FCL provided that the balance of a container is taken with other fruits.

Prunes
Chilean prunes remain the cheapest alternative so far. With other sources more expensive, they are selling well and the undertone is slightly bullish for this reason.
Until now prices remain stable, but some shippers already limited for their offers in certain counts. Being still early in the season, this may cause a firmer market further in the season.

Raisins
The smaller crop in South-Africa has led to an early sign of ‘sold’ on the door. Shippers are on hold as they first wish to see the outcome of the production.
As the quality is excellent this year, there are hardly any standard qualities available, resulting in only choice qualities at a higher price for sale.
However, due to the overall smaller quantity of the crop, these seem to be exhausted as well as some shippers not offering goldens at all and even some are already out of Thompsons.
Jumbo goldens are not yet available as these will be very limited and shippers have to produce many loads of ‘medium’ in the hope some jumbo’s will come out. Until that time they do not wish to commit on jumbo sizes.
This makes an easy bridge to the Chilean situation: jumbo goldens are sold already as rather limited over there as well. Perhaps an odd container will be offered later in the season.
Also the genuine jumbo flame is hard to find. It will not be a surprise the prices for these popular jumbo types are increasing in the market, certainly as shipments are late.
In Türkiye another good crop seems to be ahead. Though some frost occurred, it will not seriously affect the total yield.
The current crop is still well available. Nevertheless prices remain stable, due to the fact TMO has bought substantial quantities supported by the government in approach to the elections. The average quality is rather poor and tough not an official standard, even some quantities are traded as Type 6, being a kind of dark industrial quantity.
In the coming weeks we expect the first offers for the new crop.

Nuts

Walnuts
The Californian walnut market remains in the doldrums except for the higher (light) qualities. The signs of another good crop does not help to lift the prices.
The school-program to buy a substantial quantity of so called ‘domestic’ qualities was not impressive enough to increase prices.
Also shipments – more or less equal to last years but more walnuts to move – keeps the market in a quiet mood. The only exception is the high half count and light material (Chandler 80%). These are getting scarce and prices slowly increasing.
Talks about farmers possibly not find it worthwhile to harvest coming crop (as the returns will not be sufficient to compensate labour costs and maintenance of the orchard) as well as some think about tree pulling and switched to other products, may trigger prices. But whether this will happen already in the next round?
Chile, though lower than last year, maintained their distance with the Californian levels. Especially the extra light material is selling well and is not in competition with any other source because of its superior quality.
The problem for Chile will become more and more to move the growing crop, mainly consisting of light machine cracked material, and thus have to compete with the lower Californian prices.