CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS & WALNUTS

In general the activities are slowing down somewhat now summer holidays have started or will be enjoyed in the coming period.
Some of the crops on the Northern Hemisphere are being harvested and dried (apricots and sultanas f.e.) whereas others (currants and nuts f.e.) will be harvested after the summer holidays.
There is a firmer tendency of prices all over the place, either caused by disappointing crop (apricots)  and/or higher production costs related to the high inflation in Europe.
In spite of a new president for the Turkish National Bank and a U-turn in the monetary policy of Mr. Erdogan, by increasing the interest rate for the Turkish Lira, the currency collapsed even further.
Mind you: the present value against the dollar and euro is only about 33% compared to its value 2 years ago; and another fact: 25% less compared to one month ago, after the re-election of the country’s president.
It makes it rather difficult for the exporters to calculate their offers, which became rather volatile.
The dollar is fluctuating against the euro in a margin of 2 to 3% since the beginning of this month.

Dried Fruits

Apples
All eyes are on the first offers for the Chinese new crop apples now shipments completely stopped and stocks in Europe none to zero.
Prices have firmed considerably in the second hand. Also alternative sources from South America and Europe do not give much relief as still more expensive.
With the new crop from China not earlier available then November at the earliest and as can be expected for the first and quick shipments – regardless of the size of the crop –  a premium shall have to be paid, we foresee high prices at least till early 2024, after which prices may(!) come down, depending on the availability of the product for drying.

Apricots
The crop 2023 is actually in already and drying. Disappointing quantities have been harvested in certain areas, which will bring – according to “official”
sources – the crop to max 55.000 tons, though other sources are more optimistic for even about 75.000 tons (similar to last year).
Anyhow we can again speak about a modest crop.
Other elements driving prices up are the fact that a larger part of the crop has a high percentage of blemished fruit, the workforce has diminished now the population of the Malatya region is only 60/70% of the time before the earthquake, high inflation makes fertilizes, energy and labour more expensive and mainly larger sizes will be available.
So in spite of a “cheap” Turkish Lira, we saw prices increase considerably in the recent weeks, which will temper the enthusiasm of the buyers, so this makes sellers nervous and ready to be more flexible, as they need cash-flow as well.

Banana chips
The prices in the Philippines, after having risen in the last months, came somewhat at ease at the moment, but this may change when demand from Asia picks up for the winter period and the festivals early 2024.
Factories are fully booked, so shipments to Europe (in combination with still longer transit times of the ships) remain slow for months and consequently stocks over here are very low. New arrivals hardly see the warehouse.
We expect prices to remain on the somewhat higher level for at least the coming 4 to 5 months, when possibly a better supply of bananas may bring some relief.

Pears/Peaches
The humid conditions in South Africa caused some delay for the first shipments of the new crop stone fruits.
Longer drying time than usually extended the production time.
Pears are meanwhile almost sold, whereas for peaches some quantities still available.

Pineapple/Papaya
The spring season for pineapple is over. High production costs (expensive price due to weak currency) and severe drought in April caused less and delayed
planting of pineapple. Also the next (winter) crop will be later than usual and expected to be smaller. Also El Nino is becoming an issue for the size of the crops.
The new crop in Oct/Nov for papaya may bring some relief as due to high prices lately more farmers opted for growing more papaya.
Prices will be lower most probably, if the weather will be favourable. However the first shipments of this new crop will reach Europe only by the end of this year and lower prices will not be effective before the beginning of 2024 and until the pipeline will be filled again.
Other tropical fruits will be well available at similar pricing as we see now.

Prunes
The prices of Chilean prunes are stable, First arrivals of the crop 2023 are about to arrive in Europe.
French and Californian prunes remain high priced.

Raisins
Apart from natural Thompsons, some flames and other ‘new’ varieties of dark raisins, South Africa has only some minor quantities of goldens to offer.
With an exceptional good quality this season, ‘standard’ product is hardly available and ‘choice’ is actually the only grading available.
The crop according to the SA Raisin Board (Raisin SA) will be 56.000 tons (against 79K tons last season).
Jumbo raisins are hardly available and actually all quantities meanwhile sold in origin.
Chile also has a lack of jumbo raisins and certainly golden jumbo are only obtainable at premium prices,
Also jumbo flames are being sold at increasing prices, after the attractively offered opening prices, being history by now.
Türkiye has another good crop, estimated at 310K tons and slightly (3%) lower than last season. Prices are very attractive and making the sultanas as one of the cheapest dried fruits at the moment.
Californian prices for natural Thompson are gradually weakening. Though exporters trying to hold prices with the argument the US government is preparing a bid for a large quantity for schools, buyers do not get nervous.

Nuts

Walnuts
Though the May shipment increased by 23%, the effect on the pricing was minimal. Also in spite of a 64K tons purchase by the US government of combo material.
Nevertheless we believe we have left the bottom for several reasons:

• The industry would be meanwhile over 90% sold (and 70% shipped)
• Light material (certainly the higher half counts) are getting scarce with many shippers sold already completely
• Most important: the crop will be late this year (first shipment Oct and Chandlers only in Nov), so too late to catch the Christmas season

We strongly advise to have a look at your needs for deliveries till end of the year, as new crop will not be in before that time.
Chile is short on their predicted crop of 190K ton by 10/20%.. The size of the walnuts is on average smaller and massive interest from Asia and Middle East for inshell
product, holds prices firm. Also the Chilean industry succeeds to make a substantial premium for their high end quality product compared to the
Californian competition. Reason being indeed quality (fresh product till end of the year) and certainly with the delayed crop in California this year,
they can fill the gap for the light and higher half counts only arriving after Christmas from California.