CatZinfo dried fruits & walnuts
With the holiday period in full swing overall in Europe, activities are slow. Nevertheless some markets are developing and especially spot business
as usual.
The Mediterranean crops are reaching their completion, with especially from Turkey a disappointing outcome for apricots and sultanas.
The crops from the Southern Hemisphere have reached with unfortunately quite some delays – especially from Chile – the European markets.
From the geo-political point of view the war in Ukraine continues and there seems to be no swift solution for peace.
Meanwhile the world trade has been accustomed to the situation and stream of goods have been adapted to the current situation.
Without willing to be involved in a climate discussion, fact is that nowadays weather patterns are changing, accelerated by El Niño, which is influencing temperatures and this has consequences for the yield of the crops.
Remarkable is the continuous weakening of the Turkish Lira, in spite of a two times increasing of the interest rate.
Apparently the new policy is not working (yet), which gives thoughts about the strength of the Turkish economy.
For the European importers/buyers it obviously has some advantages, realizing what the price of Turkish apricots (and other fruits of course) would have been
at the same Lira value against the dollar and euro 1 or 2 years ago……
Dried Fruits
Apples
The first indications of prices are slightly lower than last season closing prices. As always it is rather difficult to have an idea of the coming crops. Suppliers still using the “argument”: we think crop will be smaller” but cannot give any figures or other facts to justify such claims.
Also there is no such thing as a “Chinese Apple Board” providing statistical figures about crops and shipments. So we have to base ourselves on experience and things we do know.
For sure the Chinese government has a more serious approach to pollution than in the past. Consequently factories working with old fashioned ovens have been closed and others had to invest in more advanced heating systems restricting the emissions in the air. This all making production costs anyhow more expensive.
Another fact is: the market is empty, so first shipments will be in demand. There will be no reason for the Chinese exporters to discount on these first sales. After this it will be a wild guess, as this is depending on the actual crop size, demand from the ‘fresh’ markets and juice industries, energy costs, freight rates etc.
Our (logical) advice would be to cover early for the first period and to be on board of the first vessels (expected to depart late Sep / Oct) and wait and see for the second part of the season (and follow our further CatZinfo’s on this subject).
Apricots
The yield of the 2023 Turkish (dried) apricot crop will be somewhere between 55K and 60K. With only a carryout of max. 10k, this will not be sufficient to match the export of 83 tons of the previous crop.
On top of this, the harvest has been seriously damaged due to heavy rains and hail storms during the season.
We cannot but make a comparison with 2014 season, when the crop was almost completely damaged by night frost, but a large carry-out compensated for this largely. This year however the total crop might be 70K max, but how much will be suitable for export as ‘fancy’ or ‘class 1’, being without rain- and hail damage?
Also the limited workforce around Malatya city will be another factor complicating the normal production.
The ’lucky’ element is the weak Turkish Lira, otherwise prices would have been in a region of US$ 10,- per kilo, which certainly would have minimised sales and perhaps ‘killed’ consumption.
Prices remain firm as there is limited supply on the market, with farmers holding apricots as an ‘asset’ less vulnerable for inflation.
Banana chips
The market for Philippine banana chips is rather quiet at the moment. Also shippers are somewhat puzzled, so we see a rather big variation in prices, where market remains at a higher level and nobody discounting but some not trusting the market ask higher prices.
Problematic is the slow production and delayed shipments, which makes the lead time from ordering to arrival up to 3 months.
Another issue are the EU-regulations on MOSH/MOAH, which cannot yet be met with any shipper. Though not yet a legal MRL, authorities have announced to enforce these limits and act consequently. For good order sake: our products do have a correct CoA on these MRL’s!
Pears/Peaches
Not much to report from South Africa as the crop 2023 has been dealt with apart from an odd load of industrial pears or some peaches.
Shipments coming in late again this year, mainly due to the higher humidity during drying, which took longer to have the product at the correct moisture level to start processing and packing.
Pineapple/Papaya
The summer crop is over and having the canning factories closed for maintenance the next 2 to 3 months, supply of pineapple for the dehydration has diminished by at least 25/30%.
Where pineapple was relatively cheap compared to papaya and stable in pricing, we now see firmer prices for this fruit.
For the papaya we see a development according to the well-known ‘pig-cycle’: after 2 consecutive years of shortage, the number of papaya plantations has increased.
No doubt supply will increase and will obviously relax prices. This may however take a while before these lower prices reach Europe, as this new crop will only be in Oct-Dec and market is empty.
Mango will remain expensive due to an expected smaller winter crop. Ginger might also be somewhat short due to higher prices for fresh ginger, so farmers may cut earlier and less ripen ginger will be available needed for dehydration purposes.
Prunes
The market for prunes is also rather dull at the moment. Chile has still to offer and most sizes are well available.
Prices remain stable with some shippers willing to discount for quick shipment and cash.
Californian prunes do not play a big role in Europe anymore, but this may change when nut farmers will switch to other cultivars (i.e. plums) now prices for almonds and walnuts are not worthwhile to harvest. Finally they need to find a home for these additional quantities.
Raisins
Disappointing news from Turkey, where due to adverse weather condition the crop has been damaged and will be less than anticipated.
Most packers are hesitant to offer and undoubtfully it will mean firmer prices and leave the low levels from the past 2 years.
South Africa is well sold on their main stream products and has some leftovers on the ‘smaller’ volume items.
Especially goldens were short and later this season we expect a firm pricing in the second hand as Ramadan buying will has to be procured from this 2023 crop (Ramadan starts March 10th 2024).
Chile is also short on goldens and especially jumbo goldens are hardly available anymore. Jumbo flames still available but prices have firmed as the quantity of genuine flames is decreasing every year, due to the fact other cultivars can also be grown and sold easier as table grapes.
Californian Thompsons are gradually easing somewhat in pricing – in spite of a government buying program – but still way above prices from South Africa.
Nuts
Walnuts
With the holiday period in full swing overall in Europe, activities are slow. Nevertheless some markets are developing and especially spot business
as usual.
The Mediterranean crops are reaching their completion, with especially from Turkey a disappointing outcome for apricots and sultanas.
The crops from the Southern Hemisphere have reached with unfortunately quite some delays – especially from Chile – the European markets.
From the geo-political point of view the war in Ukraine continues and there seems to be no swift solution for peace.
Meanwhile the world trade has been accustomed to the situation and stream of goods have been adapted to the current situation.
Without willing to be involved in a climate discussion, fact is that nowadays weather patterns are changing, accelerated by El Niño, which is influencing temperatures and this has consequences for the yield of the crops.
Remarkable is the continuous weakening of the Turkish Lira, in spite of a two times increasing of the interest rate.
Apparently the new policy is not working (yet), which gives thoughts about the strength of the Turkish economy.
For the European importers/buyers it obviously has some advantages, realizing what the price of Turkish apricots (and other fruits of course) would have been
at the same Lira value against the dollar and euro 1 or 2 years ago……