CatZinfo – dried fruit & walnuts

Due to the holiday period we also had a break with our CatZinfo, which will be sent more frequently now.
In the past few weeks we have not seen very dramatic changes, but certainly some developments need to be reported.
With the dried fruit crops on the Northern Hemisphere harvested and dried, we see even the first shipments on its way,
we are now waiting for the walnut crops in California and Europe.
The dollar has firmed by about 3% in the last weeks, obviously increasing prices for the European buyers.
The Turkish Lira remains weak in spite of the ‘new’ monetary policy. Meanwhile interest rates have been increased up to 25%,
but it has not lead to any substantial improvement of the value of the Turkish currency yet.

Dried Fruits

Apples: we expect first shipments of the Chinese apple crop in October. These will land in an empty market and early arrivals are in demand.
Certainly rings and quarters are almost impossible to find on the spot.
New crop prices are somewhat easier compared to last year’s level, though the firmer dollar spoils the ‘fun’.

Apricots
Though meanwhile the Turkish apricots crop in volume is bigger than initially expected with over 80K tons, problem is the damaged fruit.
Estimations we hear, that 20/25% of the crop must be regarded as ‘industrial’, so it simply means a shortage on good quality apricots.
We also notice a spread between good quality fruit and lower grades. It will be important to have a trustworthy suppliers, not mixing these
different qualities.
Prices remain firm and certainly will slow down demand, but in view of the available quantity we see not much room for a substantial lower market.
Certainly for the winter season we shall have to cope with these higher prices.
Banana chips
The prices for Philippine bananachips increased somewhat in the past weeks, due to higher demand for the festival period in the Asian countries early 2024.
Shipments are still problematic to get on a regular basis and transit times to Europe increased by 2 to 3 weeks. Stock in Europe hence still low.
Pears/Peaches
Unchanged positions, with SA sold on all tree fruits except the peaches. With 6 to 7 months to go till the crop 2024 will be shipped, as usual there will be
some pressure on the spot market towards the end of the season.

Pineapple/Papaya

With canneries still closed for maintenance and waiting for the pineapple winter crop, supply for the dehydration industry in Thailand is limited.
Prices somewhat firmer for pineapple now supply decreased by about 30%.
For papaya we see some improvement of supply, as with the higher prices more farmers to choose for cultivating papaya. Obviously this
may result in somewhat easier prices for the papaya.
The mango season for summer was over & the crop has turned into quite a very short period, though good, so some of the packers cannot catch the season properly.
The coming season would be in winter where the crop is normally smaller than the summer one.
However, this year, due to long drought, we expect the impact towards this winter crop or in other words, we expect the supply in this winter to be less than the same period of last year.

Prunes
Chilean prices ease a little, though depending on the shipper certain sizes become more scarce. Of course also in this case the firmer dollar is a spoiler.
Shipments from Chile are some what problematic and containers are frequently rolled over, making a steady supply sometimes difficult.
Raisins
The Turkish crop is rather disappointing: after frost in March, rains in June resulting in mildew, the crop will be 200/250K tons against well over 300K tons
last season. Most shippers are still on hold and we see already a rather firm tendency for the Turkish sultana, which will no longer be the cheapest dried fruit like last season.
We cannot but recommend to cover – also in view of the stronger dollar and the chance that the further increase of the interest rates in Turkey will finally have
its effect and resulting in a firmer Turkish Lira.
South Africa I sold on the main stream products except for the Thompsons, which are still well available.
Golden raisins will be come problematic later in the season, as production was limited (completely sold) and next Ramadan Festivals must be procured from this year’s crop.
Also in Chile goldens are not available anymore – except an odd load at rather high price –  but jumbo flames and Thompsons still are.
California Thompsons remain way to expensive for the South-African and Chilean competition, though there are of course buyers preferring the Californian origin in spite of a more
expensive level.

Nuts

Walnuts
The Californian crop is looking good and the objective estimation was 790K tons, meaning a 5% increase compared to the actual crop size of 752 from the 2022 crop.
This in spite of a decreased acreage (-4%) for walnuts caused by uprooting trees and older orchards.
The weather conditions have been fine resulting for sure in good and light qualities; so a good sign for the buyers it seems.
However, with current low prices, there might be a surprise when farmers may not invest in harvesting as this will cost more then the price they expect to get.
Most shippers are careful and many not yet offering also because they await the outcome of the meeting of the Californian walnut handlers of last Wednesday Sep 6th.
It will not be the first time this event causes a serious change in pricing in a joint attempt of the industry to lift prices.
At the moment there is a shortage for halves and light material from the current crop, which causes also an upward trend for the walnuts. Certainly light halves on the spot
is very scarce and doing a premium, as at this stage not many dare to take a position shortly before the new crop will arrive. This however might be another problem to corner in this market,
as the new crop will be about 2 weeks later and certainly a late variety like Chandler will not arrive in Europe before December at best.
(On top the logistics are a challenge as well, as a shortage on container equipments and vessels has meanwhile caused already serious delays and transit times increase to over 6 weeks.)
The Chlean crop is largely committed and especially for (extra) light material we noticed increased prices, so this also will be an element the Californians take in consideration
when they enter the market with the new crop.