All around we hear the December sales have been good and we notice actually from January 2nd a surprisingly substantial interest for both spot material as for positions later in the year. Most markets have not moved too much in the last weeks due to the holidays, but we expect somewhat more excitement in the coming weeks and months as: – crops from the Southern Hemisphere will come onto the market; – blooming of most crops will start and in combination with the weather this will determine the size and quality of the crops 2017. The conditions on the southern part of the world are ‘so far so good’. Crops seem to have developed well, but of course he crucial drying periods still have to begin and it will not be the first time rains will spoil the crops on the fields. On the northern part, both in the Mediterranean as Californian regions, there is a cold and wet spell, which is good for the dormant period of the trees, but only a first forecast for a good crop with many challenges to encounter till final harvesting!
As written in our previous report, we think coming year may be a year of surprises: an American, a Russian and a Turkish guy like to show their muscles, which may have finally also some consequences for free trade – as we already see with the Russian ban – as well as on currencies – see the Turkish Lira – and influence pricing of our products one way or the other.
The euro/dollar left the sofar lowest point meanwhile and the somewhat weaker dollar is positive for the European imports as in the end it makes prices in euros more attractive. The decrease of the Turkish Lira (10% in the last 14 days and 30% in the last half year!!) is causing a downward pricing of Turkish export prices and boosting sales of Turkish product to (a.o.) Europe.
Dried Fruits
Apricots
Actually there is not much activity, other than Turkish shippers lowering their prices, facilitated by the weak Turkish Lira, However buyers seem to be well covered, so demand is not yet picking up. Since August about 43.000 tons have been shipped, which is an impressive figure and that is why prices on the local market in Malatya are not weak. Reason of the lower export prices we just explained. Some bottleneck at the availability of natural apricots, for which a higher premium is asked for. At the moment Malatya has some night frost – which is perfect actually in this stage – as the later the bloom starts, the less risk for frost in the vulnerable stage of the developing buds. Some bad news from South-Africa: apricots will be hardly available for export.
Apples
Prices for Chinese apples are stable. Some quantities are still available so no problems yet for the supply of Chinese material.
It is too early to say something yet about the Chilean apple crop.
Banana chips
The availability of Philippine bananachips remains difficult. Not only are shipments delayed because of production problems, also it is hard to get new offers other than for an odd container for shipment in February or even later. Prices remain firm and we are afraid we have to cope with this situation till after the Asian Festivals.
Cranberries
Unchanged market with Canadian/American industries suffering from too low prices to harvest and produce with a negative margin. Some discussions are going on in Brussels to abolish the suspension of import duty for American cranberries for further processing, in favour of the newly closed FTA with Canada, with also zero duty for agricultural products.
Currants
The heavy trading period for currants we left behind, but asking for new offers the answer of the Greek exporters most of the times is: we prefer to wait as we are well sold.
Small currants are not for sale anymore in Greece.
Pineapple/Papaya
Though some drop of prices was expected, both papaya and pineapple prices remain on their old levels and even somewhat firm. Though crops are good, especially for pineapple there is a heavy competition with the canning factories to obtain the raw material.
Another problem arises with the mango, being scarce and hence more expensive. Same applies for the coconut products, suffering from a worldwide shortage.
Additional problem is the lack of space on the ships to Europe, causing additional delays.
Prunes
Chile is selling the last containers of the crop 2016.
These are in good demand as worldwide we see California having half of its usual crop and again Argentina will have hardly enough to export anything of importance. This will certainly bring some pressure on the Chilean crop, which is looking good and is expected to be around 65 to 70K mtons. Prices therefor we expect to remain at least at same level, but may certainly be subject to increase in the given market conditions. First shipment may leave end of March/April.
Raisins Usually at this time of the year the first speculative offers for South-African raisins are around, but after last year’s disaster (rain in the drying period) even the diehard speculators have become a little more careful. We hear the crop is looking good and we have to wait on what farmers will go for: goldens, thompsons or sultanas. Prices we expect any moment now.
Chile is also facing a good crop, but as also here shippers last year have suffered from some weather problems after offered out on a speculative basis, exporters are resistant to offer out yet. However we expect also here prices in the coming weeks.
From California there is not much to report. Export shipments are kind of slow and we see prices moving sidewards to somewhat weaker.
Iran has finally lowered its prices to compete with the Turkish origin, as they experienced low sales when offering above the Turkish prices.
Turkey has shipped substantial quantities (115K up to 31/12) but also having this season a total of 350K to move. Some quantities are in the hands of strong exporters, who can hold these and wait for higher prices. Actually we see on the Izmir market prices firming, but as explained export prices remain soft due to the weaker Turkish Lira. If no frost or currency hick-ups will occur, we may go at same levels into the transition of the 2017 crop.
Nuts
Walnuts
As a similar quantity was shipped in December like last year, the focus of most shippers is on the 28% increase year-to-date. This justifies in their opinion a somewhat higher price as most of them are indeed well sold for time being. We may oppose with stories about a bigger crop in Chile, but we also know if the American marketing story is on the road, we have to follow. Certainly there is a huge demand for in shells from the Middle East / Africa area, which makes less available for cracking. Certainly the higher end qualities like 80% LHP may become scarce and we may well recommend to take some covering till the summer.