CatzInfo – Dried Fruits

Most markets are quiet, obviously because many are enjoying their holidays. Therefor just some brief highlights this time.
The situation in Turkey seems to be back to ‘normal’ as far as we here from our contacts when they speak about daily live and economic activities. As situation is now we do not expect any disruption in the export of dried fruits. Though the latest news is Mr. Erdogan will also go after the supposed supporters of the coup in the business environment.
Another factor which may well influence the markets for Turkish dried fruits is the visit of Mr. Erdogan to Mr. Putin next week, which may result in an opening of the Russian market for Turkish agricultural products. This will be welcomed by the Turkish farmers and exporters and will have some upward effect to the prices.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

The Turkish apricot market is pretty stable due to lack of trade. Prices eased somewhat and buyer sitting back waiting for even lower times as they know in this period the farmers need cash to pay for the workers and materials. Export shipments are slow, especially in the last 2 months. On the other hand sellers know demand for the seasonal period will have to pick up still.
Most growers prefer to sulphur their product as due to the lower prices, they hope to have a better market later. This will mean the natural apricots will be scarce and relatively expensive.

 Apples

The Chinese offers are becoming more seriously but also somewhat more expensive. Exporters complain about less product for drying available and consequently have to increase their prices. First shipments will be in September with the later varieties such as Qinguan and Fuji in October.

Banana chips

The bananachips market faces a difficult time. Raw material (green bananas) are hard to get and factories need a longer lead-time to fulfill orders. Especially broken chips are practically non-existing and quoted at same level as the whole chips.

Currants

The crop 2015 of Greek currants is sold and obviously the Greek sellers – if at all offering – feel strong to lift prices and leave the historical low level of last year. Prices increased by more than 20% in the last month.

Pineapple/Papaya

The natural papaya will be available in October but till this arrives in Europe, taking into consideration the empty pipelines, we do not expect a serious improvement in supply and prices till early 2017.

Pineapple will be a little later due to the rains in spring, which have delayed the plantings of the fruits. Same story as for papaya: improvement early 2017 at the earliest. Besides size of the fruits will be smaller, so especially ‘rings’ will be smaller as well.

The mango crop (Oct-Nov)will be definitely smaller and already now there is a shortage on the spot. Prices have firmed considerably.

Prunes

Californian prices continue to rise and added with the almost 10% duty for Europe, prices are getting outpriced compared with the Chilean product. Though some bottlenecks appear in the supply of Chilean product, most sizes are still available and prices moving sideward as demand is still slow.

Raisins

The official 2016 crop estimation for Turkey is set at exactly(!) 313.134 mtons. This very accurate figure has been published under the assumption weather remains favourable. With a carry out of about 25.000 tons there will be no shortage of sultanas this year. Markets are calm and also here buyers not in a rush to cover. It will become the game for the party with the best poker face: For buyers Christmas is coming and for sellers the loans have to be paid back.
Iran is also expecting a good crop with a plus of 10/15% with a total of 180K tons, of which about 25% will be produces as goldens.

With the improved qualities from Iran, these goldens may fill up the gap, which South Africa has left due to the disappointing qualities this season, which were for the greater part industrial grades and not suitable for export. Consequently choice and even standard qualities are completely sold for goldens and thompsons and even some quantities will be short shipped

Chile is having a serious problem with their goldens. A substantial part has been damaged by the rains and moisture and looks very spotted. Not only color but also shelf life will be a problem. For a good quality, premiums have to be paid as for jumbo sizes also here South African material is non-existing

Nuts

Walnuts

The ‘subjective’ estimation for the 2016 Californian walnut crop is set at 589.000 mtons (649.000 short tons), which is 8% more than last year’s. Though this figure is mainly based on ‘impressions and feelings’ it gives a signal which way we will go. Anyhow a larger crop, though of course the Californian industry already remarked the risk of sunburn is realistic and may jeopardize this optimistic figure and some say it is “less more” than expected. The ‘objective’ estimation will be released 2nd September and is usually somewhat more accurate. Prices remain stable especially for light material, for which the market is running empty now, so first shipments will be in demand.

In Chile the prices have firmed further, now shippers wish to renegotiate contracts either by shipping less or asking higher prices. This concerns mainly light and hand-cracked material as dark and yellow product is no problem, though this being rain-affected material may give some problems with regard to the shelf life.