CatzInfo – Dried Fruits
The holidays are coming to an end, so we expect business to become more active. The first signs are already present and we notice increasing demand for the seasonal period at the end of the year. Now some crops are already being harvested or the harvesting comes that close we can make an educated guess about the crop sizes: the game is on!
Also for spot business we see increasing demand to bridge the gap till the arrivals of the new crops.
Dried Fruits
Apricots
The Turkish Lira became somewhat stronger since the decrease after the failed coup in July. This is one of the reasons prices for apricots did not go lower. As mentioned above: there is more activity and farmers and traders in Turkey feel this is the time to get some better prices. Farmers are bringing only limited quantities to the market in Malatya, whereas demand is picking up. In the last week prices are slowly coming into an upward trend and we may well advise you to have a look at your needs till the end of the year as the Turkish side will hold the market tight.
Apples
The new crop prices from China continue to be on a firmer level. There is solid interest for the first shipments as stocks in Europe are low. As one can expect: prices for first shipments are available at a premium.
Chile is sold and despite the huge difference with the cheaper Chinese product, there is still a vast amount of buyers preferring this origin because of the regular good quality.
Banana chips
The prices for bananachips keep on going up. Most shippers – certainly those with PAH-certified products – are fully booked for the coming weeks and some already offer only for October shipment onwards. Broken bananachips are actually not available anymore and we foresee a severe shortage at least till the end of the year in Europe.
Problem is the supply of the fresh green bananas, the raw material for the bananachips.
Prices have increase with another 10% in the last 2 week.
Currants
Though not yet many serious offers around from Greek exporters, speaking with them, it is clear prices for new crop (2016) will be substantially higher than those of last season. The carry out of the 2015 crop will be minimal as most shippers sold completely. With most of the sellers out for holidays, there is not yet a market price, though indications may point to a 20/25% higher level compared to last year.
Pineapple/Papaya
Next to the still high prices for both papaya and pineapple from Thailand, the main bottleneck is the shipping period. Orders given now are accepted for shipment week 41/42, which is becoming very tight to serve the seasonal demand in Europe. This evokes also a rather active spot demand as buyers need to have material for the coming months.
To be mentioned is the difficult supply situation for mango, with very firm pricing.
Prunes
The expected small Californian new crop is hanging over the market, but for time being it has not yet much influence on the Chilean prices. Though medium sizes in Chile are getting scarce, so far prices have just increased a little. We expect however when Chile will receive more demand from buyers of Californian product, we may well see a swift increase of prices, as bottom-line world production will be smaller the coming year.
Raisins
After the announcement of the estimated crop in Turkey (313K) prices came down a little bit. This last week, with the firming of the Turkish Lira and increasing activity for the new crop, we see the bottom has been reached for time being. With traditional demand till the end of the year we do not foresee another decline till early 2017 and of course at that time depending of the unsold stocks.
On the other hand there is a huge challenge for the Turkish industry to move this quantity, as the last 2 years prices have been rather high and part of the customers turned to other origins. To win these back, can only be done with attractive pricing.
California’s export figure is considerably down (-14%) and even more to Europe (-25%). Prices have come down gradually, not in the last place due to the huge difference with the lower Turkish prices. The coming crop is looking well, but we also know the Californians are good marketing people!
The heavy rains earlier this year – the worst in 65 years – have hit the Chilean crop badly and destroyed about 15.000 tons from the projected 70.000 tons. Especially the golden raisins have suffered, whereas flame and Thompsons escaped from very serious damage. Quality- and shipment problems as well as higher prices for goldens; the last two varieties only limited increase of prices.
South Africa is shipping out the contracted quantities and has nothing to offer anymore. With half a year to go till new crop becomes available, we may see a hard time for those in need specifically for goldens. For Europe there is for time being not really an alternative: California hardly can meet the EU sulphur limit and Iran at the moment sold and new crop only arriving November, which is rather late for the seasonal period.
Nuts
Walnuts
The situation for the Californian walnut market is still a Mexican standoff. Buyers in view of the ‘subjective estimation’ (589K) expect prices to come down; sellers know the pipeline for light material is empty, so buyers shall have to pay a premium for the first shipments.
It also a fact that though there is not much free quantity of light material available, contracted quantities are still being shipped (+16% YTD overall), so how empty are these pipelines?
On the other hand the weather in California is reaching higher levels for a longer period now. This time water is not an issue, but sunburn may restrict the quantity of light material, so we may see – like at the moment – a big gap between expensive light product and cheap combo/amber walnuts.
Sep 2 we will hear the ‘objective estimate’ and also we will be closer to the actual harvesting to know better where we will go.
Chile is completely sold with light material, except for a load from a second hand trader, and offering mainly lower grade material. Prices for hand-cracked light material up by over 40%!
It is too early to say much about the Eastern European crops, as these crops will only start in October, apart from anyhow being less transparent in predictions for the expected yields.