CatzInfo – Dried Fruits

Demand for spot is substantial: buyers have waited as long as possible because prices of several products are lower than last season.
But also importers have taken very carefully positions and consequently available stocks are running low.
Those who are ordering now, come at the end of the line and either have to pay a premium or get product rather late as transit times are at least several weeks for most products.
Meanwhile we hear the first speculative offers from the Southern Hemisphere already, though we think it is a little too early to make an educated guess what way the markets will go, as much can happen still to the crop.
The dollar firmed a little at time of writing to 1,111.
Another remarkable element in our trade is the sudden drop of the Turkish Lira last week by 2 to 3%, giving way for a possible further decline of export prices usually quoted in dollars.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

The apricot market is moving sideways: most buyers have covered at least till the end of the year, so on the demand side there is not too much activity.
From Turkish side there is a reasonable order book, so no panic from that side either. Shipments are going well and qualities so far very good.
Here and there a shipper may need some orders and is offering slightly below the market, but these ‘promotions’ are taken by the market very quickly.
The farmers might become a little reluctant and wait for higher levels, thus creating some shortage sitting on their stocks.

 Apples

The crop of the Fuji variety will start in the second half of October. The earlier varieties are being harvested now, but farmers find prices rather low (as usual) and trying to obtain higher levels now drying is starting. This may well result in somewhat higher levels.

Banana chips

Stocks in Europe of bananachips are none to zero. Containers afloat have been sold as well and we foresee a difficult period at least till the end of this year.
Production in the Philippines simply cannot meet demand and new orders will not be shipped earlier than December, being too late to bring relief before the Christmas season.
Prices are very firm.

Cranberries

The global crop will be about 5 to 8% higher compared to last season. However total sales have been growing by 5% as well, so we can speak about a balanced situation.
Prices came down in the last year and are a headache for the industry, as prices result in negative margins for the farmers and also do not absorb the higher productions costs.

We expect on the long run less supply, as farmers will quit this product and better prices are needed to maintain this industry. For time being it is a product with great value for less money.

Currants

The prices of Greek currants are more or less unchanged in the last 2 weeks. Harvest and drying has started and first shipments are about to go.

Pineapple/Papaya

Slowly situation is coming back to normal as far as production is concerned. The lead time for new orders is getting back to 5/6 weeks.
Having said this, stocks are running low in Europe and with an additional transit time of at least 5 weeks, also for these products relief will be after the seasonal sales.
Consequently demand for spot material remains huge and prices stable to firm in the second hand.

Prunes

Chilean exporters are short of the bigger sizes, whereas the smaller sizes are well available.
Shippers trying to sell out in the coming months, as they wish to start with an empty warehouse when the new crop will come in likely in Feb/Mar ’17. Prices unchanged.
California, having a small crop, is becoming too expensive for the European market, except for some ‘California addicts’.

Raisins

The Turkish prices are a little lower since our last report and becoming very attractively priced.
Expectation is: we hit the sweet spot in pricing and buyers may well think about covering for the longer period, so demand may pick up.

California has given in on pricing under pressure of the lower prices from Turkey and could not maintain the considerable gap between both origins.

Same applies for Iran, where prices have to follow the Turkish levels in order to attract buyers for their product. Iranian shippers are optimistic the European market will have easier access for them, now political thresholds will likely disappear.

South Africa is not having a problem with pricing as they are simply sold for the basic products like natural thompsons and goldens. New crop is developing well and first indications are a continuation of last season’s levels, which in view of other origins seems to be a little wishful thinking. Nevertheless the crop is far from being in, so, much can still happen.

Nuts

Walnuts

The Californians do it again: a record crop and prices are moving….up!!. Of course they know the stocks for light material are low in Europe; moreover the Chilean crop for light material is a failure due to the rains. In the last weeks buying started especially for the first shipments. This gave some new ‘courage’ for the Californian walnut industry, in particular for the light product to increase prices and ask for premiums for quick shipments.

The harvest is coming in and so far looking good. Though rumours were there, the temperatures were high and may cause some sunburn, the percentage of ‘light’ is up to expectations.
Most probably the crop will reach the estimated 607K mtons and the Californians need to move a massive quantity. We expect for light material this will not be a problem and prices for these will be stable to firm; for darker material, like at the end of last season, they will need to sacrifice on price in order to sell out sufficiently and not to be stuck with a huge carry out in autumn 2017.