CatZinfo – Dried Fruits & nuts

The basics of trading have not changed in the last weeks: emphasis on spot buying and selling and – with a few exceptions – low activities for the forward positions. Supply from Asia is delayed and consequently stock positions in Europe low, so buyers trying to secure quantities before the important Christmas season. This was also the general perception at SIAL, which was very well visited. Perhaps a sign ‘food’ is booming and economies are back on track. The dollar firmed again by another 2% since our last report (1,09), making the outcome of calculations to convert in euros somewhat more expensive.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

The Turkish suppliers wonder where demand is.
Buyers have covered their needs till the end of the year and in view of lower prices – one of the elements is the weak Turkish Lira – are not in a hurry to cover for the long term. The quality so far is good and all sizes are still well available. We do not foresee much changes in this market until the bloom end Q1 2017.

Apples

The first shipments of the new crop of Chinese apples are on the water. Chinese shippers report increasing prices – as usual – as for the later periods only apples from the more expensive cold stores can be used and supply is not abundant.

Banana chips

The situation for bananachips is still dramatic. Afloat parcels hardly touch the warehouses and are sold before arrival. Supply cannot meet demand and prices remain firm.
Currently quickest shipment is for December, which means arrival in January. Spot material is very hard to find and only against premium prices.
We expect this situation to continue at least until spring next year, before additional supply may bring some relief.

Cranberries

Prices remain attractive and we see no downside for this. The industry is thinking of all kind of measurements to decrease the structural oversupply causing the low and below cost price levels.
For sure one or the other day they will succeed.

Currants

First shipment of the Greek currants are on the water. Harvest has been normal, but prices are well above last year’s level and remain firm as demand has been substantial.
Greek shippers therefor feel strong and not inclined to give in on pricing.

Pineapple/Papaya

The situation for pineapple has improved somewhat. Supply is back to normal and lead times for new orders back to a couple of weeks instead of months.
For papaya supply is a little disappointing and hence some shippers having some delays in the shipments as they cannot secure adequate quantities to fulfill pending orders.

Prunes

There is not much demand for the forward positions and it is a dull market. A couple of months ago prices for Chilean prunes have been lifted as shippers claiming to be close to sold out. Certainly bigger sizes would have been scarce. Approaching the end of the year, after which producers will start maintenance and wish to have empty warehouses, we see somewhat more flexibility in the pricing of some shippers. As California is rather expensive, we cannot say it is a week market, but some bargains are possible in Chile.

Raisins The Turkish export prices have firmed a little. Being by far the cheapest origin for the traditional sources, demand has picked up and we may well advise you to have a look at your needs for the coming months. The Turkish prices are a headache for the Iranian exporters: usually Iran is below the levels of Turkey, but now have to sell in view of their cost price above this level. How long they can maintain this attitude remains to be seen, so they sincerely hope for an upward turn in the market.
California has also lowered its prices somewhat as they have to compete with the 330.000 mtons Turkey is bringing on the world market. On top California is also having a good crop, so there will be no shortage in MY 16/17.
Though a little early first news from South Africa is good as far as the new crop is concerned.
Developments are good and discussing with several people we hear a record crop of about 60K might be possible.
With the exception of Jumbo Goldens, Chile is having most varieties and sizes available.

Nuts

Walnuts Record shipments from California in September and strong demand have firmed the market for Californian walnuts. Demand from Asia for in shells has picked up again and the empty market for light material (especially Chandler) in Europe was another trigger for an active demand. Shippers are offering carefully and first wish to see the outcome of the cracking, before they commit themselves to certain qualities.

Some remarks can be made: the crop is earlier than last year, so a record shipment in September is rather logic as last year first (substantial) shipments started only in October; secondly we have the feeling European buyers have covered till the end of the year and now wait and see how sales will go on at these lower levels compared with last year. Though most Californian shippers are in good shape, if demands stays away for a longer period, they also will have the need to have their factories running.

There is a huge demand on the spot for Chandler 80%, which is non existing on the spot market. Being a ‘late’ variety first shipments are only about now to be shipped and will not arrive in Europe before beginning of December.

Chile is completely sold for the higher end qualities.

The harvesting in Eastern Europe has started somewhat later and quantity- and quality wise is not very promising.