CatZinfo 24/2/2017

After a stormy night in Holland, which even caused closing down the port of Rotterdam yesterday 23/2, we may inform you about some windy markets for dried fruits and nuts. Rains in Chile and South-Africa have caused some firmness in the new crop offers for dried fruits, being partly on the drying fields. Higher humidity and lower temperatures are delaying the drying process and to a certain extend detoriate the quality of the products. Also some shippers have postponed their offers or are withdrawn from the market. We expect during or after next week’s Gulf Food Fair in Dubai the directions of the prices for the Southern Hemisphere products will become more clear. The Turkish Lira is gaining back some ground and is a valid argument for Turkish exporters of dried fruits to increase the prices. The dollar tends to be somewhat firmer against the euro, causing prices for imported goods to become anyhow somewhat more expensive. The CETA (Canadian-European Trade Agreement) has been approved by the European Parliament. After passing the Canadian Parliament it is expected some parts will be effective as of April/May this year. Products like cranberries, will benefit from the CETA, whereas there is still discussion whether in turn the suspension of import duties for American cranberries for further processing must be continued.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

Demand is still not strong, but the Turkish industry is holding back on offers and waiting for a turn in the market for the second part of the season, as well as waiting for the circumstances during and after the bloom. Of course also the stronger Turkish Lira is ‘used’ as a factor to increase the actual offers. Actually it is not the supply nor demand which is causing some movements, but more the careful attitude of both sellers and buyers. There will still be enough apricots to satisfy demand till new crop, but farmers are keeping the market tight by sitting on their stocks. This has increased prices on the local market of Malatya. Note however small apricots are relatively scarce as crop was mainly bigger sizes and consequently there is only a small premium for larger size apricots.

Apples Some shippers in China withdrew from the market as local prices firmed. Those still offering came with higher prices, claiming the available quantities will not be enough to satisfy demand till Sep/Oct, the new crop 2017. Taking into consideration for the second half of the season apples must be used from the more expensive cold-store stocks, we will have to cope with higher prices during the rest of the season. Actually this is the usual pattern for the Chinese product. Chile is heading for a decent crop, but it is still too early to say anything about the price levels.

Banana chips

Though prices are not increasing anymore, it is still a difficult situation. Shipments hardly touch the warehouses of the importers and are sold before arrival. There is still a huge backlog in production and we foresee a tight situation at least till after the summer.

Cranberries

Prices are very attractive and actually everybody is waiting for better prices to make the industry healthy again. A limited ‘long’ position is recommended.

Currants

Demand is dwindling down with some hick-up for the Easter period, but the Greek industry is comfortably sold and see no need to lower prices.

The South African crop has not suffered from rains like the raisin area in the Upington and we expect a nice volume will be available to compensate for the tight situation for Greek currants.

Pineapple/Papaya

The most important season for pineapple is over and has given a good crop with stable prices. However demand from the canning industry is still high and we expect prices to stay in the current range. Next (smaller) crop will be in April till June.

Papaya is short and factories fear in near future they must limit orders and only accept in combination with other products in a container.

Mango is limited available and the new crop will start next month. Prices to be on same higher level as in the previous period, mainly due to empty pipelines.

Prunes

Possible rains have caused a withdrawal of some shippers for the new crop Chilean prunes. Of course we have to take in mind this is the usual prelude before the new crops and a drop of rain may well be a shower, depending through which glasses you watch the sky….

Nevertheless we can follow the weather on internet as well in Chile and indeed some rains are announced in the coming days. If this comes true, it certainly will harm the crop, at least the part out on the drying fields. Prices so far have been pretty the same like last season and one can imagine if rains occur we may see a firmer market obviously.

Raisins Rains as well in South Africa have affected the crop. An expected crop of 65.000 tons has been reduced to somewhat more than 55.000 tons for time being. Rains and consequently a higher humidity and longer drying has caused some lower quality and most probably goldens will be less than expected. Prices expected after next week.

Chile will be short of (jumbo) goldens as well and most shippers do not even offer. Prices for flames and Thompsons are stable and a continuation of last year’s levels.

Turkey is simple: the crop of 330K is sufficient and prices are related to the rate of the Turkish Lira as demand is stable. Those holding stocks in Turkey will try to sit on it as long as possible, but at the end a big crop has to be moved…..

Iran does not make serious attempt to follow the Turkish prices. They have good outlets in the Middle East and a growing interest from Russia, which is still banning (at least officially) Turkish product.

Nuts

Walnuts More and more it becomes clear the Californian industry is sold already for 80% or even more. Even domestic grades are getting scarce. Asking for a load of 80% LLP will be a difficult mission. Prices are increasing rapidly and when we bear in mind we still have at least 8 months to go before the new crop will arrive (Chandler even longer).

We will see prices in the second hand determine the market in the remaining months of the season.

Chile is heading for a new record crop of an estimated 90.000 mtons and following the developments for the Californian product with some satisfaction. First indications for handcracked material are way above the Californian prices, but similar to the level of the last years opening prices from Chile.