CatZinfo – Dried Fruits & walnuts

The raisin and prune crops on the Southern Hemisphere are in and looking goods apart from some details, for which we may well refer to the specific sections below. Most shippers have announced their first prices, though  limited number is still holding back as they wish to see the outcome of the selection of the incoming goods. Also the Gulf Fair in Dubai has triggered many suppliers to start offering in order to really have something to tell to their visitors. One of the trends we learned from this exhibition is the important role India will be playing coming period. Will India become the new China and boost demand further? We see the increasing supply of almonds, walnuts, raisins f.e. and prices increasing: it simply means demand must increase even harder! Imagine what will happen if crops on the Northern Hemisphere will be disappointing in autumn and demand continues at same pace?

In view of the big market share of Turkey in dried fruits the value of the Turkish Lira is important. We see lately a rather volatile rate against the US-dollar and it is no exception a daily change of 2 or even 3% can be observed.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

Temperatures in the Malatya area are rising and bloom is expected to start pretty soon. Many had hoped for a longer period of low temperatures, so bloom would have started end of March and consequently the risk of frost will be lower. Frost can occur (normally) till mid April and we do not have to mention the consequences remembering what we have seen in 2014. Prices are firming already somewhat. For the current crop demand remains slow, but this may change rapidly if indeed the bloom will start and night frost will be announced. If no night frost – an option buyers like to mention as well – we may well be back to earlier levels. All sizes still available with limited premium for the bigger sizes.

Apples The prices in China continue to firm as cost for cold storage have to be calculated and supply is getting tighter. Chinese sources predict a considerable increase in the coming weeks, but of course we have to bear in mind they are the sellers…. Nevertheless a firming market in the second part of the season is the usual scenario.

Banana chips

Prices getting more stable, but this will not solve the supply situation on the short term. On the contrary: when expecting lower prices, buyers usually sit back, but as the pipeline is rather empty, it will mean a prolongation of empty warehouse in Europe for even a longer period. Covering till after summer is recommended.

Cranberries

Unchanged with attractive priced offers.

Currants

Greece is comfortably sold well, with exception of a few odd containers for sale at increasing prices. Some relief will come from South-Africa, but this is a limited volume and besides small berried, which is not a solution for everyone.

Pineapple/Papaya

No changes to report. Note prices will stay rather firm as supply is not sufficient till the next crops for pineapple and papaya.

Prunes

The crop in Chile is in and in general it can be said the quality is okay. Sizing seems to be normal. The crop now has to ‘rest’ in order to homogenize the moisture. We expect first shipments second half of April.

Prices are steady to firm as Chili feels they have hardly competition at the moment, with Californian quantities minimal at premium prices.

Raisins

Luckily the temperatures in South Africa – in the Orange River area – have increased, which makes drying a little quicker. However some damage on the goldens is reported as these need absolutely hot winds to dry. Raisins affected by the more humid air will have to be downgraded to standard or even lower.

Another problem will be the slower drying will make it difficult for the farmers to use their drying equipment as usual twice, so total supply of goldens may be less. Also jumbo sized raisins will be very scarce this year.

From Chile we see the usual policy: the message is as always: difficult situation with less quantity to offer, however prices remain rather stable, though higher than last year’s. As since many years, they will perhaps shoot themselves in their own foot again, telling to be almost sold, but a continuous flow of ‘last’ containers evidencing the contrary. Hence buyers do not get nervous with the current news about tight supply, however for jumbo goldens we have the strong impression, for once they are telling the truth.

Turkish prices remain stable and move along the waves of the Turkish Lira against the US-dollar.

Iran is not too active on the European market as they focus more on the Middle East and Asian markets, having easier access. Prices are in line with the Turkish prices. Goldens are very attractively priced and quality nowadays is quite acceptable as also in Iran investments have been made in equipment like laserscanning and x-ray.

Nuts

Walnuts Believe it or not: in spite of a record crop, fact is the Californian walnut prices are very firm as most shippers report to be almost sold. Asking for a load of 80% LHP will result in a disappointing reply from most shippers. Nobody had expected we would arrive in this situation already early March. Mind you we still have at least half a year to go till the next crop……

Though Chile is heading as well for a bumper crop – though the first projections of 90K are adapted downward to 85K – but in pricing the market continues at the ‘old’ higher levels. On the spot hardly anything available anymore, so buyers in need of product are paying these premium prices for first shipments, thus contributing to a firm market.

Prices from Eastern Europe are firm as well, with more and more hesitance from buyers in view of ‘challenging’ qualities at these levels.