CatZinfo

Now the Brexit-procedure has officially started, we have to see what is the impact specifically for us on the trade of nuts and dried fruits. If within 2 years no agreement will be made, the British importers cannot enjoy some favourable import duties as elaborated by the EU with other countries. Also the EU-export into or importing from the UK, will be ‘in transit’.

The Dutch elections ended in a rather careful result with no victory for the hardliners. However composing a coalition will be a tough one, as at least 4 parties are needed to have a majority in parliament. Unfortunately the escalation of the situation with Turkey has increased. As amongst EU- and Turkish traders there are actually no tensions, it seems mostly a political issue in attempt to win the referendum. Nevertheless we have to keep a close eye on the developments, as Turkey being an important player in our line of products, with a political ‘punishment’ in the form of an import- or export ban from either side, may hamper our activities.

The dollar against the euro remained rather flat, whereas the Turkish Lira, though limited and still more volatile, gained a little against the dollar.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

The bloom is all around in Malatya areas. Also in the higher orchards it has started. Some nights with minimal frost have not affected the coming crop so far. For the coming days there is no night frost predicted, but till end of April it is still possible as history learns. So it is too early to say the crop is safe. Both buyers and sellers are waiting and activities are none to zero at the moment. If the weather remains favourable we may see a good crop and together with an estimated carry-out of 20k – if exports on same pace – we may see attractive prices ahead. On the other hand we all know just one night of frost can still mean a disaster and also hail when the fruits are on the trees may affect seriously the number of sound apricots. Prices meanwhile remain stable.

Apples

Chinese suppliers have raised their prices for apples as stocks are getting low. This is the usual pattern, now new orders have to be produced from stocks in cold store, which obviously are costing more.

Banana chips

The bananachips market is easing down somewhat. We see however a two tier market: on the spot the available quantities are low and hence sellers asking a premium. In origin we see slightly lower prices, but consequently a wait-and-see attitude, which again results in minimal arrivals to fill the pipeline. Prices will remain relatively firm for spot material for the coming months at least.

Currants

The prices from Greece continue to increase as unsold quantities are finding a home very rapidly. A luxury position after many years for the Greek shippers, which they take advantage as can be expected. South Africa is still offering at similar levels, but these are usually small berried.

Pineapple/Papaya

Not much activities to report. The situation in Thailand is still to be described as: tight supply.
Prices remain firm, though demand is slow, but on the spot the stocks for tropical fruits remain low as well and consequently we do not foresee an easier pricing within short.

Prunes

Prices from Chile lately seemed to increase after the attractive opening prices, but easing again somewhat at the moment. With a good crop the Chilean industry has to move a good quantity this year, so exporters eager to move some quantities as soon as possible. California is high priced certainly for Europe as importduty has to be paid contrary to the Chilean product favouring 0%.
Only some traditional buyers still go for the Californian product now.

Raisins

South Africa will have quality wise a good crop, but quantities are somewhat disappointing. Goldens are certainly in quantity somewhat less, whereas Thompsons are well available.

Also Chile is reporting lower quantities as initially expected, but most buyers are rather suspicious about this news. In the past this appeared to be a marketing strategy, resulting with promotional sales at the end of the season, due to the fact most shippers keep supply short by sitting on their stocks too long.

The bloom in Turkey has started and alike the apricots frost has affected some quantities. This however will be minimal as it concerned only 10/15% of the crop in bloom. Meanwhile a greater part of the orchards is in bloom and weather forecasts are looking good. Buyers are sitting back now farmers wish to make some sales as at unchanged weather condition we may again see a good crop coming. Note: not only weather may still be an uncertain factor, also the Turkish Lira may play an important role, either positive or negative.

Californian prices remain stable.

Nuts

Walnuts The Californian walnut market is most and for all demand driven. A crop of 670k short tons against 600K last year, has caused initially lower prices as could be expected. However strong demand from India, Turkey and Middle East has brought the Californian industry in a comfortable position again. Prices have firmed by at least 10% in the last weeks. Finding in shells or high end material like 80% LHP is getting difficult.

Moreover competition from Eastern Europe is hardly there, as available quantities are way lower than expected.

Chile opened ate relatively high prices, which were accepted by the buyers in need for the first shipments. The spot market for especially handcracked material is practically empty, as due to many quality issues from last year’s crop many loads have been rejected or proved to be of unacceptable quality after some months due too high moisture material.
As Chile has to move a record crop close to 90K, we may well see some improvement on prices later on. However handcracked material may remain expensive, as labour is getting scarce and expensive in Chile.