CatZinfo

Time goes on and we are already looking at the new crops from the Northern Hemisphere, which are or are about to come in the crucial blossom period.
The Mediterranean crops are developing well, as well as the Californian fruits and nuts.
No water shortages reported, so we may well be heading for some bumper crops, which may bring some favourable prices as well as some problems with the size of the fruits and nuts.

The news from Brussels Turkish sultanas will be subject to enforced controls at entrance in the EU is making life for importers again more complicated.
The costs related to these extra controls shall have to be born at the end by the consumer, making the product slightly more expensive.
As only 5 RASFF-alerts were noticed, which is neglectable in relation to the tonnage imported, we have the strong impression this might be merely a political decision.

The currencies remained within a 1% range up and down.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

In Malatya the risk of frost is almost vanished and first estimations are rather optimistic. We may see a bumper crop and we already heard 200.000 tons ‘plus’.
Obviously prices may come down, but for the next 3 to 4 months we still have to do with what is left from the last crop.
If there will be a huge crop, small fruits will be in the majority and opposite to this season more premium will have to be asked for larger fruits. Mind you we are not yet in August, so we may still see some elements, which may affect the yield of the crop.
Also the rate of the Turkish Lira against the dollar, which was rather volatile in the recent history, could be one of these elements.

Apples

Supply of Chinese apples is getting low. Shippers cannot find enough material and consequently prices are firming.
We may see a firm tendency until the end of the year, as new crop will only be shipped in October at the earliest.
Chilean apples have outpriced themselves and their place taken over by Italian or Chinese product.
To gain this market back, the Chilean exporters shall have to sacrifice on the price in the coming years.

Banana chips

Prices for Philippine bananachips are coming down slowly.
There is still a huge backlog in shipments, so we see on the spot in Europe higher prices than compared to current offers in orgin.
Covering hand-to-mouth seems to be a sensible strategy.

Cranberries

The market for cranberries can be described with one word: oversupply.
Though exporters in USA and Canada are trying with all kind of marketing programs to stimulate demand, prices going towards an absolute minimum and below cost price.
It is clear supply shall have to be reduced and if they succeed we see only the way up for prices, having fallen so deep now.

Currants

Thought demand for currants in this period is traditionally low, prices remain firm. Greece is about to be sold completely except for some odd containers. South-African currants – though rather small – are enjoying more interest as since long these are competitive in price.

Pineapple/Papaya

In Thailand supply of fresh fruit is still tight for most products. High demand from the canneries is not helping either.
Prices remain hence stable to firm and shipments are slow, causing low stocks in Europe with premiums for immediate deliveries.

Prunes

Chilean prices are moving side wards in spite of an almost monopoly they have, now California supply is small and way higher in price.
Certainly for Europe Chilean prices without import duty are very attractive.
Demand however is slow, which makes Chilean suppliers uncertain and inclined to negotiate in case of bigger volumes.

Raisins

Chile is hardly having jumbo goldens this year and prices are rather high, which made buyers be very hesitant to step in.
On the contrary the popular jumbo fame raisins is at more or less same level as last season, but also here we notice a slower demand than usual.
Also perhaps buyers get to know the Chilean strategy, claiming shortages in the beginning of the season, but at the end of the season selling out many ‘last’ containers which they still have ‘found’.
South Africa has a reasonable crop with ample supply of most products, which are also still available today.
Both natural as golden raisins are well available at competitive prices.
Note however prices in California are slowly increasing and this might be a sign for the South African shippers to follow that direction as well.
In Turkey we may see again a very good crop with enough quantity to satisfy everybody.
This may of course also be the brake for a further increase in the before mentioned origins.
Turkish prices are very attractive at the moment and it might be a good momentum to see your position for a longer period, as we see hardly any downside anymore at today’s prices. 

Nuts

Walnuts The market for Californian walnuts is going to unexpected levels.
Did the huge crop of 670K tons in the beginning ease the prices, due to the continuous demand worldwide, meanwhile most shippers are comfortably sold and only willing to sell their last products – if any – against a considerable premium.
Especially light material is short and as most buyers bought hand-to-mouth in expectation of a down going market, demand will continue.
With still 6 months to go before new crop will be available, we expect an ongoing firmer market till that time.

Chile is selling especially strong on inshell product and reporting to sell also shelled light material quite easily in spite of relatively high prices.
In view of Californian prices rapidly increasing, there will be no incentive for the Chilean exporters to give in on prices.