CatZinfo – Dried Fruits & Nuts

Overall activities are strong, both for spot business as well as for long term contracts. In general buyers have been hesitant in covering lately, which now causes an active demand for nearby positions. Now the size of the crops from the Southern Hemisphere is clear, buyers do take again positions for the longer term as well, though careful.

The advanced elections in Turkey announced by Mr. Erdogan will have some challenges for the trade as well. First of all the value of the Turkish Lira against the US-Dollar will become probably more volatile. Upon the announcement of the elections we saw already a 2% change in the rate. Also – as usual – the farmers will be promised support by the current government, in turn to vote for Mr. Erdogan.  This may influence prices for Turkish agricultural products.

The dollar against the euro is a rather steady figure the last 2 weeks.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

We dare say the risk of frost is gone in Turkey, though in theory it lasts till end of this month. Forecasts till end of April show minimum 9 to 10 degrees Celsius at night. First estimations of the crop 2018 are rather widespread between 130K and 180K, provided no adverse weather occurs. Contrary to the current crop with lots of small fruits, it is expected the coming crop will show predominantly larger sizes on average. What is left from the current crop are mainly small sized fruit, for which minimal interest is shown. Prices have eased somewhat also because of the weaker Turkish Lira lately, However, as touched above, this may change depending on the outcome of the elections.

Apples

The season in China is coming to an end. The dehydration period is almost finished and with support for the production of apple juice by the authorities there are less apples available for dehydration. Also the low levels paid for apples in China has made farmers to decide pulling apple trees and opt for other cultivations. On top a cold spell in the last few weeks in China may reduce the outcome of the 2018 crop even further, so a firmer trend is rather likely.

Banana chips

Slow shipments from the Philippines make the market in Europe rather tight in supply. Though prices in origin are stable, we notice on the spot firmer prices as stocks are running low.

Cranberries

Prices remain firm and productions fully booked for the next few months.

Currants

The crop of South-Africa – half of last year’s quantity – has been sold. Greece having an odd container available at premium price. All focus will be on the coming crop from Greece in autumn ’18, but in view of the continuous decrease in Greece of acreage cultivating currants, we will have to face firm prices for at least another year.

Pineapple/Papaya

Good supply of most products with somewhat easier pricing. However cautious buying in Europe has caused stocks to be very low and therefore higher prices have to be paid for scarce products on the spot.

Prunes

Chile is selling well at attractive prices. The moment they will realize to be the sole supplier at these levels, is getting closer….. Also some sizes are getting scarce already. California is way too expensive to compete the Chilean prices .

Raisins

South Africa is practically sold on medium Thompsons. Ironically the quality of the fruit is excellent, which makes the cheaper standard varieties hardly available. For (choice) goldens there is still enough product available. What is left furtherare also some jumbo sizes and other less acceptable types and sizes.

Chile is holding to the higher level, though demand is slow. Question remains whether Chilean exporters may have the nerves (and money) to resist the lower levels indicated by the buyers.

Turkey is holding firm on prices as well, in spite of the weaker Turkish Lira, we see levels in dollars stable to firm lately.

California seems to have no problem with the current high levels, though export sales are minimal at the moment. The available quantities of acceptable quality are low, so no need to come down on pricing.

Nuts

Walnuts

California is suffering from a slow demand. Though prices for 80% LHP came down, this could not convince buyers to step in yet. Buyers have become rather sceptic in all statistics showing good shipments and a smaller crop. It is just the way these are explained and how you look at it. Meanwhile it seems prices are stabilizing.

Remarkable fact: lower half counts and pieces are almost equally priced to the higher end qualities like 80% LHP. Reason being the good quality on average of the walnut crop.

First indications for the new crop are positive, but we still have a long time to go!

Chile was rather optimistic after their high opening prices were accepted by some buyers during the Gulfair in Dubai. However the majority of the buyers felt prices to be too high and waited. For time being they are right as prices weakened.