CatZinfo – Dried Fruits & walnuts
In these broken weeks (Easter and May 1) activities are not at the highest gear.
A general wait-and-see attitude is present at the moment.
We think however this might be a tricky situation, as we may see some markets run away all of a sudden as we have experienced with f.e. some tropical fruits and banana chips.
Demand is still growing at consumer levels, however good crops have made buyers reluctant to step in.
We think, once replacement is needed, buyers will be fighting to get the free merchandise and a speedy shipment.
Therefor we recommend to have a look at your needs for the longer term already (till end of the year f.e.)for products like apricots, prunes, raisins and walnuts.
For Turkish products there is another complication: the gradually weaker Turkish Lira causes optical stable markets for the foreign buyers.
On the local “Pazar” in Malatya there is not much supply and prices are firmer.
Also intake from the domestic market for Ramadan is taking place.
So far about 75K ton has been sold from an estimated crop + carry-out of 135K ton.
What will be left at the end will be mainly small sized and industrial apricots.
The new crop has passed the vulnerable stage of the frost. Though some light frost has hit some of the higher areas, the loss is assessed to be minimal.
It looks we are heading for a normal crop, though there are still some hazards to overcome till the crop is safely in.
Also buyers have bought for the short term, so we may see some increase of demand till new crop.
We suppose in the coming weeks we may see the first speculative offers.
The available quantities in origin are close to exhausted and remaining quantities have to be shipped in refrigerated containers passing the equator in this time of the year, increasing the price further.
Also in Europe the stocks are limited and pricing for spot material continuously increases.
The lack of green bananas in the Philippines is the reason of the firm trend for the bananachips.
Most processors are fully booked and today first available shipments in September/October are no exceptions.
Due to the slow production obviously stock in Europe are minimal.
Spot material is hard to find en in view of the continues delays also in the coming period, we expect a further firming of the market prices, especially for spot material.
Sellers trying to move some quantities as in this slow market need to have some orders in the books.
Demand is slow as usual in this period. Prices however remain firm simply due to the fact supply is limited. South-Africa is actually sold as total crop only around 1500 tons and already taken by the buyers fond of this origin. Greece has limited quantities to offer at gradually increasing prices. Pineapple/Papaya/Mango
Pineapple is the headache factor for the coming months.
Supply being dependent from the ‘leftovers’ from the canneries, which however reduced their production as still have stocks.
There are no signs they will resume production on a larger scale, so shortages will be there till at least the next crop in October.
In practice it will mean no improvement of prices till the end of the year. Shippers are restrictive in offering core pineapple and allowing only to take a few tons per FCL if in combination with other products.
For natural coloured papaya prices are high, but no restrictions on quantities.
Except for a shortage on ginger products, the other tropical products from Thailand are well available.
Steady market in Chile. The crop is in and prices stable.
This is one of the items we may see a sudden increase, as prices are actually at low levels and consumption is growing.
Buyers have bought carefully as prices eased somewhat and had a wait-and-see attitude for the long run.
Actually we see no downside and at best a stable market in the near future..
The South-African crop is in. A serious estimation will be for a total crop of 70k tons, alike last year’s crop.
However the share of goldens has substantially decreased as farmers have chosen to go more for the ‘safe’ natural Thompsons, with a premium, while less risk and labour.
Therefor we see a firm market for goldens and actually offers are very limited if not sold and a more easy market for natural Thompsons with already some discounted pricing.
This being a rare phenomenon in South-Africa, as usually opening prices are sustainable till the last months of the year, when shippers know what is left in their warehouses.
Chilean prices are flat for most varieties and firm prices for golden jumbo raisins.
Californian prices suffer from the lower levels in South Africa and declining shipments.
Prices came down but seem to have found a bottom and the equivalent level of the SA prices.
Turkish prices are actually firming as some frost occurred in the night of April 23.
Some damage has been reported and the crop will be somewhat down, but too early to make an educated guess.
Higher prices in Turkish Lira at the Bursa are softened by the weaker Lira.
Iran seem to have definitely ground on the European market due to the political ban on transactions with this country, though limited quantities are still imported.
Walnuts In spite of the positive shipment figures from California, the market remained quiet.
So did as well the prices, which increased at the beginning of these year compared to the lower opening prices at the beginning of the season.
However the attempt of the Californian industry to continue this increase for time being failed, in spite of reports most shippers are well sold especially in the higher end qualities.
Buyers however are not nervous and wait or focus more on Chile.
Chile has opened at more attractive prices and this might be one of the reasons buyers have less attention for the Californian offers.
The gap between the high quality product from Chile has become smaller compared to the Californian light Chandlers 80/85%.