CatZinfo – dried fruits & nuts

The first harvests of the Southern Hemisphere have started.
So far so good with normal weather circumstances, as well as the normal and occasional and local shower which by some has been promoted to a small thunderstorm jeopardizing the upcoming crop.
The usual tactics upfront with sellers very careful about what still can happen – and sometimes happened in the past – and buyers (willing) to hear mainly positive things.
At the end, the market is right!
The continuous logistic constraints will also become a challenge for the southern shippers.
Not only the disruption of shipping schedules, but also the risks to enter long term contracts, which may be subject to freight cost increases.
The US-dollar weakened against the Euro.
Getting gradually somewhat stronger since mid-January, in the last day it came back to the earlier level of over 1,14, which is good news for the importers in Europe.
The Turkish Lira is less volatile these days, but lost meanwhile 4% since beginning of this year.

Dried Fruits

Apricots
Prices continue to firm as mor and more it is clear the remaining quantities are limited. Imagine what pricing would be in the market, when the Turkish Lira would not have been so weak?
But also the tremendously increased production costs for the Turkish processors have increased the prices.
Still at least 6 months to go till the new crop, we may not have seen the end yet.

Banana chips
The disruption in the supply is ruling the market. On the spot we see steady demand for swift deliveries, whereas supply is delayed due to the shortage of containers and shipment bookings hard to get. The costs of the ocean freight is still 6 to 7 times more than about one year ago!
Prices remain stable as logistic cost forming an important part of the final price.

Cranberries
Situation unchanged with firming prices and new orders only possible with a longer waiting period.

Currants
We have the feeling the prices for currants have reached the bottom. Not only they became what of the cheapest dried berries, so for some products they can replace more expensive berries; also the Greek shippers are trying to seek support with the government to buy a certain quantity out of the market and use for schools or simply block it.

Pears/Peaches
The crop for [ears and peaches is about 1 to 2 weeks later.
Certainly for pears not good news, as after last season’s shortage, the market is empty, so a quick replenishment would have been appreciated.
First indications of prices are firm with the news quantities will be limited.
For peaches we expected more or less same market like last year.

Prunes
The crop in Chile is looking good. The harvest will start next week and estimations are around 70K tons, which would be a ‘normal’ crop and in line with 2 years ago. Last year was a disaster obviously with prices doubled and shortages.
An upcoming factor is demand from the ‘fresh’ buyers (mainly China) which is more attractive for the farmers. It is said that this sector is already buying and will put some allocations on the share for drying.
The shippers are very reluctant to offer yet and only a few willing to give a price for one or two loads, but pricing just below the recent high levels. of course they are aware the market is empty and there will be undoubtfully buyers in need of product and prepared to pay a premium for a quick shipment.
We expect to have a more clear view in our next CatZinfo.

Raisins
The South African crop is looking good and expected to be around 85K tons.
On average the crop is about 1 week later.In the Orange River area some isolated short lasting rains, which filled the River.
Due to the higher humidity drying will take somewhat longer as well. Therefor farmers may opt for the quicker drying sultanas, as well as sundried Thompsons and somewhat less goldens.
Prices are somewhat higher than last year’s opening prices and we do not expect much spectacular changes.
The Chilean crop is reported to be satisfactory as well. Quality and quantity are good and prices a kind of continuation of last year’s levels.
Jumbo size raisins are well available.In Turkey the market is stable.
Both farmers and government are trying to lift the market with holding back sultanas and buying programs.
We think being ‘long’ can do no harm at this level.
Californian prices remain firm. Shippers are pretty confident they can move this crop and even think it might be short.

Nuts

Walnuts

The market for Californian walnut remains quiet.
A concentration of delayed shipments have now flooded the European continent, so buyers are not in need of more product, except for some particular half counts.
Prices came down considerably and with the missed sales in December due to the late arrivals, buyers first wish to move stocks, before entering the market again.
Of course, the easing prices are not an incentive to buy right now.
It is too early to say something about the Chilean crop.
Usually first contracts were signed at the Gulfood Fair, but we expect this year will not take as massive as in the past, as the number of exhibitors and visitors will be limited.