CatZinfo dried fruits & nuts

The dramatic developments in Ukraine will certainly have influence in our field of business.
Of course the human tragedy is by far more important, but from a professional point of view, we must have an eye on the consequences.
First of all the dollar firmed somewhat, but not as much as was expected. On a logistic point of view we may expect some disruptions as some routings will be cut off, which may add to the imbalance of equipment in certain areas and resulting in higher transportation costs.
Looking to the markets: Ukraine is a supplier of some of our products (e.g.: raisins and walnuts), which will for sure be stopped for time being.
On the other hand, Russia is an important market for agricultural products, but no doubt there will be restrictions or even embargoes for the export to this country (and its “friends”). These un-used quantities must find another home!
Last but not least: if Russia will be disconnected with the financial system, such as for the SWIFT-payments, exporters can and will simply not sell to Russia if they cannot be paid.
Let us hope the responsible people will realize what they have done, so this nightmare my end pretty soon.

Dried Fruits

Apricots
The market remains firm. Reason being even a slightly higher export (+2%) against a substantial smaller crop. The quantities left in the hands at the supply side are minimal and those holding stocks will wait for the Ramadan period in April, when traditionally domestic consumption will increase.
Temperatures are rather low in the previous period, so bloom may be somewhat later. This can also be seen as positive, as chance for frost destroying the crop in its most vulnerable stage will be smaller.

Apple

Apple market in China is increasing day by day due to shortage of raw material. As new crop will be available November earliest, market will be firm and covering needs is a wise idea.

Banana chips
Though prices eased somewhat in the Philippines, problem remains the fully booked production, limiting the quantities shipped.
We therefore see low stocks in the European markets and stable prices for the spot positions. Of course the firmer dollar is not helping to lower the prices!

Cranberries
More and more shippers are on hold offering for prompt. Some indicate to be prepared to offer only for shipment in 3 to 4 months. Prices increased further and spot material is getting tight.

Currants
Though it is the ‘quiet’ period for currants, we see prices increase slowly.

Pears/Peaches
In an empty market for especially the pears, the delay of the South-African crop is not good news. Offers are limited at increasing prices as also demand from the fresh market is strong due to a failure crop in France and Italy.

Pineapple/Papaya
Pineapple is well available, however papaya will be the problem coming year.
There is a serious shortage and certainly the colour will be lighter rather than deep red. Shippers have already limited the quantities they are willing to ship and full loads are not possible anymore, but must be combined with minimal half of the load with other products.
It will not be a surprise prices for papaya have firmed considerably.

Prunes
The Chilean marketable crop is expected to be roughly 20% more than last season. However demand from the fresh market in Asia is stronger than ever.
Another element is the fact the carry-out of the crop is minimal as last year’s crop was very disappointing and completely sold!
The hope we will see price levels back to ‘normal’ will be in vain. The market is empty, production costs have increased considerably and logistic costs are obviously also an additional ‘pain’ in the export pricing. Some shippers have started to offer and general trend is a continuation of last (high) prices.
Those in need for the first shipments of the new crop 2022 shall have to pay the price. Perhaps later in the year we may see some detention, but with a still limited crop, demand firm and California also short, we may have to wait for old levels till the crop 2023!

Raisins
South-Africa is reporting a lower than expected crop. With an initial forecast of close to 80K tons marketable quantity, the rains and high humidity brought this down to 65K.
Another consequence is the longer drying period – resulting in later shipments – and the fact most farmers will make less goldens, as these take the longest time to dry and as
such more risky (but higher priced). In the last days prices for goldens have increased and we advise to look certainly at your positions for goldens if required.
Chilean prices are more or less same as last year, with, as usual, different news about the crop size.
Turkish prices remain attractive, but undoubtfully will follow other origins if these will firm. Shipments were about 5% up (YTD) and brought some optimism in Turkey.
However the unsold quantities are still rather big and only a sharp price may move some extra quantities. The weaker Lira may support such policy.

Nuts

Walnuts
The drop of the Californian walnut prices seems to have come to a standstill.
Current level have attracted some buyers again and meanwhile some of the delayed stocks have been moved, so demand is picking up.
Also we see a wider gap developing between higher end products and the lower half counts/pieces.
The crop in Chile Is looking good and harvest is expected to start mid-March. The size is estimated as 150K tons and average colour lighter than last year
First prices have been announced traditionally at the Gulfair in Dubai, but only by a few shippers and with different levels.
We expect in the coming weeks the direction of the market will become more serious and we will keep you posted.