CatZinfo dried fruits & nuts

Due to the holiday-periods this summer, our CatZinfo will be issued in a somewhat lower frequency.
To be honest, also because most markets are rather slow. In general consumption slowed down somewhat, so buyers are rather cautious to take positions for the longer terms. Obviously it means somewhat more activity on the spot market. Though demand is certainly not overheated, food is a primary necessity for people and our 100% plant based products happen to be also a healthy choice for the consumer.
So demand is still there and the delayed covering need industries to cover on the spot market, also because transit times from origin to Europe in certain cases doubled, especially from Asia.
The logistic disruptions are far from over, though some freight tariffs eased somewhat. On the other hand the gradually but steady firming dollar does not help to mitigate the higher food prices worldwide.
In our scope of products we do like to highlight some items, which are rather scarce at the moment:
f.e. apricots, papaya, pears and golden raisins due to disappointing crops. Another price driver, will be the premium which needs to be paid for independently tested and approved product. Health authorities nowadays only order massive recalls and product to be destroyed in case of contamination or pesticide residues (even just) above the MRL. Non-European shippers already asking for a higher price to insure the risks of rejection and more and more tend to sell only on a FAS/FOB base against documents.
So it is becoming of eminent importance to have a strong seller, taking over these risks.

Dried Fruits

Apples

The weather conditions in the Chinese apple areas are normal. Though it will take still a couple of months before harvesting will start (Sep), the Chinese exporters reported the usual seller’s prediction: yield will be less so prices up. However there are (also usually) no independent figures supporting this thesis. On the other hand rising energy costs, lack of workers, inflation etc. will certainly lead to higher cost price for the apples.
Spot position are more and more limited due to the slow shipments, so the first arrivals new crop will land in a low stocked market.
As said, it is still too early to make an educated prediction and also the rate of the dollar and freight will be important factors of course.

Apricots
The ‘official’ new crop ’22 estimation has been set at 76K tons for the Malatya region with an additional 10K from the surrounding areas. This is about 15% less compared to last season and quite a bit lower than the initially expected 140K.

As from last year’s crop 78K has been shipped till end of June and left overs are mainly industrial, the new crop will be welcomed to fill the pipeline and cover the needs of buyers with contractual obligations. Prices have firmed in the last weeks, but are now more or less flat as buyers hardly dare to take position – if no need for – at these rather high levels.
The Turkish Lira has devaluated dramatically, though recovered somewhat last week, but could not bring down export prices.
For farmers apricots are a stable asset compared to money, as inflation in Turkey is a double digit figure, so they bring only small portions to the market, also hoping for even higher prices later in the season. Big size will be scarce this year and somewhat more speckled fruit.
For time being, we shall have to cope with the higher levels.

Banana chips
Situation rather unchanged: the shipments cannot keep pace with demand, so arrivals hardly see the warehouse.
In origin prices for green bananas are firming somewhat and so do the production costs.
Prices stable with a slight increase for euro buyers according to the firmer dollar against the euro.

Cranberries
Most shippers fully booked for the coming months. Prices remains firm.

Pears/Peaches
Pears completely sold in SA and as China is hardly an alternative due to the fact sugared material may only be sulphered at a lower level.
As shipments from SA are delayed due to cancelled calls of vessels at Cape Town, spot material is either already allocated or non-existing.
Peaches are still available.

Prunes
Also prunes are ranked under the high priced dried fruits. California short again, as well as French product after the frost in the blooming period. Chile having a normal crop, but after last year’s small crop, the market is completely empty.
Meanwhile first shipments did arrive. However with other alternative dried fruits also highly priced, prunes are obviously more popular and in demand. Prices for Chilean prunes hence did not weaken, but remain stable to firm.

Raisins
The SA crop will be slightly more than 77K, which is more than the ’21 crop of 73K, but certainly less than the first forecast in February of 86K. The rains have certainly affected the total yield. Due to these rains, farmers chose to make more Thompsons (62%) and less goldens (only 14%).
As a consequence goldens already completely sold and last loads changed hands at substantially increased prices. This will certainly bring some headaches early next year, when for sure the market will be empty and Ramadan-demand must be covered.
As Iranian product is no option (at least not in the Western world) prices will certainly be firmer towards a new crop ’23 may bring some relief, but this will take at least another 10 to 11 months!!
In view of the firm Californian prices for Thompson raisins, the relatively cheap South African choice Thompson (difference about 30/35%) is gaining more interest, but compared to the Californian quantities, will be only limited available.
Turkish sultanas remain attractively priced and forecast for the new crop are good, so we do not expect major changes. However with new elections in Türkiye in 2023, the current administration may ‘buy’ as usual votes in the agricultural community by offering high prices to the farmers by TMO, the state owned organization regulating agricultural markets.

Nuts

Walnuts
The May shipment figures were good news for the Californian industry. Especially the export figures were booming. If June figures – we will know end of next week – will be positive again, there is confidence the carry-out will be manageable.
Most shippers have sold well and we see a kind of 2-tire market. Inshells and light (Chandler) material is limited and most of what not yet has been shipped is committed already. The larger part of what is left, is darker and smaller product (combo or domestic).
The Chilean walnut crop is reported to be sold up to 60%. The crop was bigger (170K against 153K). Prices unchanged with hand-cracked ELH really firm as being limited available.