CatZinfo

Unfortunately the worldwide geopolitical problems continue and consequently increasing prices for energy, a stronger dollar and inflation all around make trading sometimes complicated.
The pessimistic outlook of most consumers also does not help traders to take long term positions.
In general prices have increased in spite of lower freight tariffs meanwhile, which could not absorb the increase of the dollar worked out in  the cost price.
Nevertheless as food is a basic need for humans and dried fruits and nuts fit well in a healthy life style, we are confident consumption will restore. Therefor it even might be a good time to step in, as pricing in dollars is attractive now lack of demand makes suppliers more ‘flexible’.

The crops on the Northern Hemisphere are ‘in’ and the size of the crops are known.
Except for a few disappointing crops like f.e. Turkish apricots an French prunes, most crops are satisfactory in quantity and quality.

Next week will be SIAL in Paris, which as we expect will undoubtfully attract many of us to go there.
After a hesitant Anuga last year, most people do travel again and this will be a good opportunity to have talks again face to face.


Dried Fruits

 

Apples

First new crop shipments will leave these weeks from China.
Prices have firmed as bad weather has limited the yield of the crop in the spring.
On top severe restrictions from the Chinese government because of COVID, where local lockdowns caused closing of complete factories due to lack of labour, has limited production even more.
We cannot but recommend to have a look at your needs for the coming season.

 

Apricots
Prices remained stable in the last weeks. Due to the high inflation in Türkiye (83%!) the state owned TMO paid double the guaranteed price on TL to farmers.
Nevertheless farmers prefer to hold their apricots, which have a more stable value than the Turkish Lira in cash.
Business is slow as also buyers are only carefully stepping in and buying hand-to-mouth.

 

Banana chips
The positive thing is freight costs are gradually somewhat better, but still a multiple amount compared to 2 years ago.
The green bananas are in short supply and as energy is needed to heat the cooking equipment, costs have increased.
As demand from the Asian market for the festival period is traditionally stronger in the coming months, it is not a surprise prices are on the rise again.
No need to explain the consequence on top of this of the strong dollar against the euro.

 

Cranberries
With positions in Europe getting tighter, the new crop from Northern America (USA + Canada) is more than welcome. The crop will start in a few weeks and is overall looking good.

Currants
Being traded fully in Euros, there is no disadvantage of the stronger dollar.
However the cost price will be subject to firmer prices of fertilizers, wages and energy.
Also the higher price the Union will pay is a sign we will leave the low price period and currants will become more expensive than last year. The crop was okay and slightly bigger than last year’s.

Pears/Peaches
Unchanged positions, with only some peaches left in South Africa. Pears only available in the second hand at increasing prices as stocks are coming to an end.

Pineapple/Papaya

The supply of pineapple seems to be normal, though caused by the backlog of shipments prices remain stable as factories fully booked.
Papaya will be another season with some shortages and prices consequently expected to stay at a higher level.

Prunes
Though not the biggest supplier, France is having another bad crop. The packers are still withdrawn from the market and also already advised small sizes will hardly be available. They first wish to see the outcome of the calibration of the crop, before offering.
The Chilean suppliers have started to sell their usual but many “last” containers ate similar levels as previously sold. For sure they have sold the greater part of the crop already, so a steady to firmer pricing can be expected in view of more than half a year to go till the next crop becomes available.
The Californian crop is as expected, but prices remain rather high.

Raisins
Türkiye was expecting another good crop of sultanas, but rains in the drying period has given some damage.
Quantity wise the crop is big, however the percentage of darker raisins (nr 8 ) is substantial and lighter material will be more scarce (certainly nr10). We expect to see a larger price difference between the dark and light material.
California remains firm on pricing for their Thompsons as they are selling well in their home market and in the America’s.
South Africa on the other hand is still struggling to move the unusual big share of Thompsons as farmers in view of weather circumstances in the harvesting time have chosen to avoid making the more risky goldens, needing more drying time, hence opted for more Thompsons.
Worldwide: goldens are getting very scarce as SA sold completely.
California is no option for Europe because they cannot match the EU-limit for sulpher and Iran out of competition due to all embargoes to trade with this country.

 

Nuts

 

Walnuts
The Californians have a serious problem after a few years of Eldorado prices. The shipments could not match the 2021 crop quantity and a massive carry-out pushed prices down.
As a consequence buyers holding back noticing the lower prices. Meanwhile prices have dropped considerably as the new crop is available, but buyers well stocked, do not show (yet) much interest.
Actually some farmers are even thinking not to harvest as the prices do not make it worthwhile to invest in harvesting. We think therefor we are at or at least close to the lowest point in the market.
Unfortunately the strong dollar makes it optical somewhat less attractive, but we are in fact at historical low levels and it may be an option to take some covering.
Chile has sold well especially on the high end products (extra light and hand cracked) and is only discounting on the lower half counts and machine cracked material.