CatZinfo 27 January 2023

With a longer break than usual, we are happy to present you our first 2023 CatZinfo.
The year started with a continuation of the situation at most of the markets we are active.
Demand in general is still slow as buyers are careful due to the sentiments about inflation, the Ukraine-Russian war and expensive stocks in their warehouses.
Compared to the various edible nuts, most dried fruit markets are more active with prices stable to firm.
If we notice the demand on the spot market, we do have the impression consumption is gradually recuperating and we may have seen the lowest levels now demand picks up somewhat.
For this reason we are carefully optimistic markets will be more active and covering for a longer period will be a responsible choice.
Since end of September ’22 the dollar lost some of its value against the euro (€/$ 1,95 against 1,09 today), which obviously helps to soften the prices of most products, being exported in dollars.
On the other hand we are confronted with higher (domestic) logistic costs, now labour and energy (warehousing and transport) have substantially risen.

Also the increasing requirements for all kind of certificates and analyses of the goods shall have to be borne by the whole chain, finally leading to a higher cost price.

Dried Fruits

Apples

Not only the available quantity for Chinese dried apples is less than previous years, also the closing down of factories due to lack of workers coping with COVID-issues, has led to a substantial shortage of dried apples in Europe. Shipments have been delayed upto 2 or 3 months on average and actually December shipments taken forward and hopefully shipped in Feb/Mar. As a result available stocks are minimal and prices firm for free available product. We do not see much of an approvement for the rest of the season, as for the coming months te apples must be kept in cold storage. With current energy prices this will even increase prices further and makes it more worthwhile for the processors to sell at the fresh market. We may well advise to have a look at your needs till the end of the year.

Apricots
It is still too early to say anything about the bloom. Temperatures are around the freezing temperature, which keeps the trees still dormant for time being.
With an inflation of over 70% (!) farmers only sell product when in need of cash.
In the last days the market has firmed again, most and for all because the government has increased the minimum wages by 55%. This is something which cannot be absorbed by the still weak Turkish Lira, for which the loss in value is slowing down lately.
Another reason for the price increase is the fact the December shipment figures were up by 12%. This gives confidence to the Malatyan industry they will manage to move greater part of this (smaller) crop without leaving a problematic carry-out.
“Next stop” will be the coming  bloom period, but for time being market will remain firmer.

Banana chips
The prices for banana chips are gradually increasing. The Philippine shippers are encountering more demand from China, which gradually is opening again and this is a market which can handle “a few loads” when demand picks up again.
With logistics still somewhat problematic as far as longer transit times are concerned, the supply situation in Europe is rather tight. We notice this, as demand for spot, but safe(!), material is heavy at the moment. Obviously this not only increases levels in the second hand, but also additional replacement demand in origin is noticed by the shippers.
Being on a rather low level historically seen, we see no downside on this market till at least Q3 or even Q4

Pears/Peaches
The South-African crop has started already in December for the apricots, however drying conditions were not good and there was a serious loss of suitable fruit. It will mean limited quantities available at high prices.
The crop for peaches is looking good and started last week for the Elberta types.
For pears the news is less optimistic as due to hail damage the Bon Cretiens have suffered some loss and there will be for sure less available this season.
We expect prices any moment and will be happy to offer those interested in these products.

Pineapple/Papaya
With most fruits under normal circumstances with steady to somewhat firmer pricing due to higher energy costs (especially for drying), the exception is the papaya.
The crop size halved as many farmers planted other crops as the yield for papaya was actually low in the last years. As a consequence there is a shortage and especially natural red
papaya is getting scarce. This is why producers urge to accept more yellowish product and restrict quantities to only a few tons per container, which must be added with other products.

Prunes
We are in between the 2 seasons and actually everybody is waiting what will happen.
As usual the estimations about the crop are rather scarce. From our sources we have the idea the crop is looking good and may be somewhat heavier than last season. In theory this would mean a somewhat more easier market. However we must keep in mind the last months the main stream sizes were somewhat scarce and stock positions in Europe low, so first shipment will certainly not be heavy discounted compared to previous prices.

Raisins
The new crops from the Southern Hemisphere will be in the spotlights the coming weeks.
From Chile we hear the crop will be normal. In the North the harvest has started and so will it be in the Central Region (around Santiago) in the coming days.
In the last area the drought may have decreased the volume somewhat, but this will not be a major issue. We expect most shippers to come on the market in the coming days.
South-Africa has decreased their estimation of the crop by about 10% (<70K instead of 77/78K initially).
The good news is the harvest started 2 weeks earlier than last year. With less fruit on the vines, the quality seems to be excellent.

In view of the high prices for goldens it is expected farmers will produce more goldens, though more risky to dry in view of the longer period needed. Pricing from the major shippers is not yet known.
Türkiye is still struggling to sell more quantities of the big crop 2022. Now minimum wages have been increased rather drastically, the prices have increased somewhat, which is not helping to promote sales of bigger volumes. In Europe however they have the advantage not to have competition from Iran anymore, as this origin is almost disappeared from the European market due to the embargoes.

Nuts

Walnuts
The walnut market remains in the doldrums despite of positive shipment figures in December.
Root cause in our opinion the heavy crop 2022 on top of a large carry-out from the ’21 crop. In spite of positive shipment figures for December, buyers carrying still higher priced positions, which they wish to liquidate before entering new engagements. On top it does not help when Californian shippers did sent consignment stock overseas and willing to listen to any bid.
Prices have come meanwhile actually to attractive levels, which make it worthwhile to have a look for the longer period. Another issue is the fact that genuine light material is relatively scarce and we may see some hick ups for this later in the season.
As always markets will adapt in the long run and in this case we expect a part of the farmers will change to other agricultural products as walnuts are no longer the Eldorado like a couple of years ago.
A similar problem we expect to see for the coming new crop from Chile. This will enter in a saturated world market. The quantity has increased each year and has to be sold. The crop will start somewhere in Mar/Apr, so too early to have any clue about the crop itself or prices.