CatzInfo – Dried Fruits

With most of us back, trade is getting back to business as usual. Buyers reflecting on their positions for the new crops from the Northern hemisphere, which are now getting clear as far as actual crop sizes will be, except the later nut crops.

In general we hear positive news about the new crops. Most crops are or will be bigger than last year’s, which makes buyers to adapt a ‘waiting attitude’. Problem is meanwhile pipelines are running empty and one may be right if in 4/5  months’ time one might buy cheaper, but if one has no product on the shelf right now, there is also a problem….
A sign for this behaviour is the substantial demand for spot material, which for several products is getting tight with consequently increasing prices, in spite of larger new crops – which however are not yet available except a few exceptions like apricots and sultanas.

The dollar remains flat against the euro lately in a range of 1,10 to 1,13.

Dried Fruits

Apricots

The Turkish political situation seems not to have had any impact on the apricot market.
The crop is in and with over 100.000 mtons sufficient to meet demand.
Prices are moving sideward, with here and there rumours prices will pick up due to good sales for the first shipment. All sizes are available. Question mark will be if and when the Russian market will open again, which may give some additional demand; though it is a public secret part of the Turkish crop reached the Russian market already by a.o. changing the origin name via channels which are very creative.

 Apples

Rains in China have damaged part of the apple crop and consequently prices are firming. With shipments of the new crop leaving in the coming weeks – depending on the variety – the stocks in Europe are limited.

Banana chips

The once fairly flat bananachips market is all of a sudden on fire. Short supply of the fresh green bananas and fully booked factories made price accelerate in the last weeks by a double digit percentage. Shippers are booked till November, consequently meaning arrival will be too late for the seasonal sales in Europe. Contracts which will be shipped earlier are mainly already committed and if one needs some material for the coming months: take a deep breath and buy, as bananachips will be non-available in a few weeks’ time, unless of course against luxury premiums. But even with the current higher prices one should realize it is still a relatively cheap item within the dried fruit range.

Currants

As expected the first offers for the new crop Greek currants are higher than last year’s. However prices are in a range of the lower percentage increase as expected. Though year to year structural smaller, the crop looks good, and this might be well the reason increase is less than expected. Also the attractive prices of the raisins will play a role.

Pineapple/Papaya

The situation for mango is the worst at this moment. Supply is very disappointing and prices will be very firm for the coming period. Prices for papaya and pineapple remain also firm, as shippers are fully booked till week 41/42 and though new crop is looking better, there is for time being hardly any supply of fresh materials. As canning factories are also in maintenance materials for the core pineapple is difficult.

Prunes

The bigger size of the Chilean prunes are coming to an end. Difference between the sizes normally being about US$ 1,– per carton have now been doubled or even tripled.

In spite of the fact Californian prices cannot compete anymore with the Chilean levels, the offers for this origin have firmed even further in view of the failure crop ahead in California.

Raisins

The good crop in Turkey has caused a weak pricing. Not only for this reason, but also because most need some cash and are willing to give in for the first shipments. Turkish shippers argue the selling price at the moment is below cost price of the growers. Of course we are at a low level, but we must not forget the Turkish Lira is weaker than previous years and current levels are certainly not the lowest – in dollars – we have ever seen. Nevertheless sales are well and risk remains, farmers, once having some cash in hand, will sit on their stocks and prices may go the other way. Though not as strong as before, also the raki-industry and Taris may give an attempt to lift prices, by buying at higher level on the domestic market. The quality is good this year, with light material on average. First test of new crop material also show the Turkish industry can comply to the lower Chlorpyrifos levels.

California is still struggling to maintain price levels, but gradually have to give in, not to lose too much market share to the Turkish competitors. As such they are still ‘lucky’ South Africa is no opponent at this moment, as they are completely sold on Thompsons.

Chile is the old story: problems with the crop due to rains etc. and a smaller yield. Apart from the jumbo goldens there is no problem getting offers for the other type of raisins and prices are stable.

Iran will also have a bigger crop and we expect them to follow the Turkish levels downward.

Nuts

Walnuts

The objective estimate in California is set at 670.000 short tons (607K mtons), which is clearly over last year’s crop by 11%. So a lot of walnuts to sell, with the remark that sizing might be a complicating factor, mainly for the in shells, as ‘jumbo’ will be less in quantity. So far the temperatures are moderate, which will avoid the risk of sunburn, However we still have a few weeks before the actual harvest will start in full swing.

Buyers still have some time to wait as of course the bigger crop raises some expectations for lower prices. On the other hand it is clear the quantities of ‘light’ material are very low and it is expected demand for this material for the first shipments will be heavy. For this reason we do not expect the Californian to give in for the first shipments. Also because most of the farmers and shippers are financially very strong in view of the bonanza prices they achieved in the previous years.

Chile is sold for the higher quality walnuts and prices are very firm, in spite of the attractive levels in California.