CatZinfo – Dried Fruits and Nuts

The crazy weeks have started: lots of interest for last-minute deliveries, where several products are rather limited available. The high prices of previous season made buyers cover very carefully and consequently stocks can hardly meet demand for immediate delivery. The dollar has been more or less stable against the euro after the surprising victory of Mr Trump in the US-elections for president. Far from stable is the Turkish Lira, which passed the 3,40 threshold for the US$/YTL rate, causing a further round of declining export prices in dollars for Turkish products or at least helping to neutralize the somewhat firmer prices for example of sultanas.
Dried Fruits

Apricots

The Turkish shippers are still aggressive sellers as they have to move a 100K mtons this season. Though there was some optimism the Russian market would be opened within short, for time being this is not the case, so Europe and the American continent are the markets for selling. Prices remain flat with a slight correction downwards due to the weak Turkish currency. Natural apricots on the other hand are firming as most farmers have chosen to dry only a limited quantity as ‘natural’ as a having shorter shelf life, farmers cannot ‘sit’ too long on this product, waiting for an eventual increase of prices later in the season. Export shipments are growing and we feel Turkish shippers will become more confident if this growth continues. Of course the weather conditions in March when the bloom will be on, shall heavenly determine the direction of the market in the last quarter of this season. The South African crop is about to be harvested and first indications are positive on quality, but the crop is again smaller. As there is a huge demand from the canning industry, some ‘exclusive’ pricing for dried apricots can be expected. We may well advise you to take whatever you need immediately as for sure the ‘sold out-sign’ will be behind the window pretty soon this season.

Apples

The new crop arrivals from China are well absorbed in the almost empty European market. Stocks are still limited and spot material is paying a premium.

Banana chips

The situation is rather unchanged. In the Philippines prices remain firm and new quantities sold just container by container with at least one or two months lead time. Consequently the available quantities in Europe are very low and finding spot material is close to a mission impossible.

Cranberries

As the actual market for cranberries is still unchanged, perhaps some discussions in Brussels may bring some spirit in this market. There are rumours the duty suspension for USA-cranberries (for further processing) may be ended, as the Canadian-European CETA would provide in a free trade, but as a routine with regard to quotas and suspensions there is a clause in which it is stated that when a tariff suspension conflicts with free trade agreements, existing suspensions should be closed. At the moment the American industry is preparing a letter to strongly protest against this possible ending of the suspension.

Currants

The Greek currant market calmed down somewhat as contracts and shipments for the Christmas sales arrived or are on their way. Prices remain way higher than last season. Perhaps South Africa, having a growing quantity of currants each year, may this year become competitive.

Pineapple/Papaya

The new crop of pineapple is larger in volume, however demand from the canning industry will create some competition on the purchasing of raw material. We do not expect a similar shortage like last year, but prices may not come down as expected. For natural papaya the crop is also looking good, however to be sure of supply especially in Europe for GMO-free product will be a challenge and consequently we do not see huge discounting for this product neither.

Mango will be in short supply and prices have firmed substantially already.

Prunes

In an attempt to move last loads of prunes with smaller sizes in Chile, we see some competitive pricing, though still higher than earlier in the season. One of the reasons is the short supply situation for the bigger sizes like 50/60 and bigger, which has lifted prices. Though the new crop will start in a couple of months, in view of the drying period and transit time to Europe, we still have to cope another 4 to 5 months with what is left of the crop 2016. As California is not an alternative in view of much higher pricing, we advise you to have a look at your needs till spring 2017.

Raisins South Africa is heading for a good crop estimated at 60/65K mtons. Let us hope we will not have same adverse weather conditions like last year, where outlooks were good, but a greater part of the crop was damaged by rains in the crucial stage before and during drying.

From Chile similar news about the development of the crop, but as usual the information about crop size and quality is rather diffuse and depending from the source.

Iran has partly the ‘luck’ of the Russian ban on Turkish product, which origin they can replace. Nevertheless they also need the European market where exports are meanwhile a little more easier, though payments are still a problem as banks still do not accept payments in dollar, afraid for USA sanctions. It remains to be seen if the Trump administration will support the latest talks about lifting these sanctions.

The supply at the Izmir Boursa is limited as farmers have the feeling the prices may go up due to the stronger export figures. Export prices remain more or less unchanged but this is mainly because of the weaker Lira.

California is still struggling: there is not yet a final ‘field price’. Farmers require higher prices in order to produce with a sound profit; exporters/producers have to cope with the low prices for competitive products like sultanas and to a small extend the Turkish Thompson raisins. Also the ‘said to be good’ South African crop may bring some lower prices. Though in quantity far from the output from California, it will be an argument for buyers.

Nuts

Walnuts Shipments from California are still strong, but business is slowing down somewhat as buyers are now covered with the first shipments of the new crop. Another element is the strong dollar, which made prices in euro not look like attractive as in the beginning of this season. Moreover the Californian have tried (and partly succeeded) to lift the prices somewhat as the first shipments were strong. All together this resulted in higher prices, making buyers hesitating.