CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS & WALNUTS

The trade in dried fruits and nuts is preparing for the last 2 months of the year, traditionally with a high consumption.
The major issue will be the availability of product, as for some commodities the market is almost empty and logistical disruption may not bring relief in time.
This situation brings a lot of tension in the markets with strong demand for spot positions and a higher volatility of the prices.
On average we follow the worldwide food trend, with bullish food prices for most products in our scope.
With COVID-figures in Europe again increasing and all over new restrictions are announced, we have seen in earlier and similar situations, consumption of food has an upward tendency. With the still firming logistic tariffs, almost standard delays of vessels and some short crops we do not see much improvement in the coming months.
The dollar is gradually firming, which ends up – additionally – to higher prices in euros. The Turkish Lira continues to weaken by over 15% since August 2021.

Dried Fruits

Apples
The prices for Chinese apples have been stable in the last weeks on an FOB-base – as there is hardly any exporter willing to offer on a CFR-base.
The freight rates obviously keep the prices on a landed Europe price on a high level. As the market is pretty empty in Europe, prices for spot material remain even firmer.

Apricots
Though the crop is a disaster in Turkey and for sure much smaller, shipments were up by 13% with more than doubled prices! We believe almost half of the crop has been shipped and an even bigger part committed and in the hands of strong people.
Available quantities of sulphured apricots are coming to an end already as a bigger share than usually has been produced as unsulphured material. Prices continue to rise and with some buyers having waited to cover at these higher prices, it will become a difficult season, certainly keeping in mind there are hardly any alternatives.

Banana chips
The situation in the Philippines is not getting easier.
Production remains limited due to travel restrictions for the workers, whereas demand is strong in view of the upcoming Asian Festival in Q1/2022.
Productions are booked for the coming months and that is why we see not enough new arrivals on the European market to refill the pipeline in the coming months.
What also does not help are the longer sailing times of the ships with additional 2 to 3 weeks. Main reason for the increasing prices however is the substantial upward movement of the coconut-oil price.
If covering for the coming winter is still needed, we cannot but advise to have a look at the possibilities now.

Pineapple/Papaya/Mango
The winter crop for pineapple has started and is looking good, but output is depending on the availability of the workers, which is due to COVID-restriction in Thailand difficult as well.
We hear on average factories running on a 50% capacity. Also the costs of energy have risen considerably, so we expect prices in the best scenario to remain unchanged for time being.
Papaya will be less available due to the floods and may firm when the shortage will materialize in the coming months.
Mango is looking ok, but also here limitations due to the labour problem.
The harvest of the ginger crop has begun and will not be abundant due to the earlier mentioned floods as well.

Pears/Peaches
Now the last quantities of the South-African crop are being shipped, mainly with completely committed quantities, the transition to the new crop will start in a rather empty market.
It is just too early to make already some predictions on the new crop, but opening prices will be at the higher end in view of the out of stock position of most buyers early next year, especially for pears.

Prunes
Except for an odd container, the Chilean exporters are completely sold and available quantities only obtainable in the second hand.
With still 6 months to go (at least) before the new crop will arrive (end of) Q2/2022 we may face some hard times if product is needed to comply to contractual obligations. The alternative could be Californian prunes, but these are expensive as well and the crop has also been disappointing. With the new Chilean crop, even if a ‘normal’ crop will be the case, will come in an empty market, so we expect opening prices will be still high anyhow and as such we will see high prices for a longer time we are afraid.

Raisins
The large Turkish sultana crop keeps prices attractive, however in the last days we see market moving up.
We suppose the shortage on Thompson raisins and consequently higher prices are triggering the Turkish shippers to go for higher levels now.
Fact is: South-Africa is sold and Californian prices are very firm at the moment, so the gap with sultanas is over US$ 1000,– per mton.
Certainly with heavier demand as usual in the winter months, we foresee a further increase in prices for both sultanas and Thompson varieties.
Golden raisins – mainly South Africa nowadays – are getting tight as well.
As the earlier Ramadan (starting April 1) demand must be fulfilled out of this crop, we will see additional demand within the coming months, which will certainly firm prices.

Nuts

Walnuts
After the storm 2 weeks ago in California, there was a slight panic as it was impossible to go into the orchards with the heavy equipment. Especially the late varieties like Chandlers were hit. Meanwhile the situation has been restored and the damage was certainly there, but not dramatic. Most damage concerns the Chandler-variety. Prices also got back to earlier levels.
A bigger issue for the Californian shippers seems to be the delayed shipments. With arrival in Europe close to Christmas time, the empty market in Europe will miss consumption,
so new arrivals will be used for the January onwards demand.
The quality of the Eastern European walnuts is the best since 4 years. Ukraine expects 10/15% more quantity. Prices nevertheless higher in conformity with the higher prices in California. Moldavia has a similar crop like last year.