CATZINFO – DRIED FRUITS AND WALNUTS

Business as usual in this period is somewhat more relaxed. The yield of the crops in the Southern Hemisphere is known and first business done and some already shipped.
Most remarkable is the disappointing crop of raisins in South Africa, with less production than expected. Also the crop of the stone fruits is by far less than in previous years.
The Chilean crops are as expected without any specific deviation compared to earlier years.
Next step will be the development of the crops in the northern part of the world. Especially the apricot crop in Turkey has been damaged by a few days of night frost, resulting in an even firmer market.
The dollar remains at the 1,10 level against the euro and softens a bit the prices as most products in our scope are firm in (dollar) pricing.
Next week the elections in Türkiye will be held. Until that time Turkish exporters are holding back as the outcome will be uncertain according to the preliminary opinions.
Hard to say what might happen if Mr. Erdogan will be exit, but in that case tensions in Türkiye will increase, with consequences for the rate of the Lira and the financial system.

Dried Fruits

Apples
It seems prices for apples will make this product a kind of luxury item. Due to the limited shipments from China, prices of the rare stocks in Europe increased and obviously the odd load offered from China is requiring a heavy investment from the buyers. Alternatives from South America or Eastern Europe are even more expensive.
This means at least till the end of the year – when the new crop from China becomes available – we will see a difficult market with high prices to be paid for those in need of apples.

Apricots
The situation in and around Malatya is still horrible. First of all for the people, who do not yet dare to go back to the city.
The infrastructure is by far not yet restored, so the cultivation of the crop by means of spraying is one issue, another one is the damage caused by the night frost in the bloom period.
At best we will see a similar crop like last year, but with an expected zero carry-out this season, this will mean a short on apricots for the new season. This has lead already for even firmer prices, where the prices of apricots were already on a high level before all these developments.
We expect for next season another period of high prices, which will certainly decrease the consumption of apricots.
Apart from quantity wise by far of any importance, the South African crop is also a disaster, so will not bring any relief.

Banana chips
The shortage of green bananas in combination with the stronger demand from the Asian market, now China is almost back to normal, has made prices firming.
Exporters cannot obtain enough material to fulfil demand and new orders only accepted for shipments in 2 or 3 months delay.
Meanwhile stocks in Europe are reaching the bottom, so the market is heated with firmer prices all over the place.

Pears/Peaches
The last allocations for pears are available now, but we speak over a few tons for the traditional buyers. With almost another year to go before the next crops will be available, we foresee also for this product increasing prices.
For peaches the situation is somewhat more relaxed.
Another issue is the delay in shipments as due to the high humidity during the drying period, it took longer to reach the desired moisture level of the dried fruit.

Pineapple/Papaya
Next to the shortage of papaya and high prices, the spring crop of the pineapple is also smaller.
Therefore we see some firming of pineapple now as well.
The other fruits remain stable in pricing.

Prunes
With other sources (Argentina/California/France) hardly offering, Chile is a kind of monopolist.
As a result, in spite of a reasonable crop, we see prices remain stable to firm and we expect as soon as the available quantities will be well sold, they will certainly go for higher prices for the ‘left overs’. Certainly when the have shipped some quantities and no liquidity problems.
Being yet at the beginning of the season 23/24 they have plenty of time to wait and see.
So far, all sizes still available, though smaller sizes will be somewhat less available so consequently less discounted compared to the bigger sizes.

Raisins
Indeed the South African crop 2023 is ‘officially’ announced as only 56K tons, where before the crop a figure of 80K was going around as expected crop size.
The heavy rains end of last year caused a lot of mould and moisture problems that infected the crop.
Ironically the quality is excellent and bringing a new ‘problem’: the lack of the usually somewhat cheaper standard qualities as most is graded as “choice”.
Almost a quarter of the crop is ‘golden’, however landing in a complete empty market and in total still limited as being ‘a quarter of less’, we see prices firming for the available quantities. With half of the crop produced as Thompson, but contrary to goldens still product of the ’22 crop available, prices remain attractive for this product.
Especially jumbo golden raisins however will be very short this and will become only (limited) available for the loyal customers.
Californian prices for Thompsons are somewhat weaker as they see the cheaper competition from South Africa.
In Chile the flames and Thompsons are well available. Bottleneck remains the jumbo goldens with limited availability at still high prices.
In Turkey the registered quantity reached the 300K threshold at the end of April, which means in a third consecutive year, this quantity has been traded.
TMO meanwhile seems to have bought over 100K tons, which makes market somewhat tight and shippers having obligation will need to buy from them.
On the other hand this quantity one way or the other should be moved, so we do not see any panic yet on sultanas, though we will see some increase in prices
as TMO simply can by means of this artificial market manipulation lift the prices to a certain extend.
It is too early to say something about the next crop and of course the result of the elections May 14^th may change the situation as well.
 

Nuts

Walnuts
The prices for genuine light and higher halves is firming and even some shippers already withdrawn. With still 6 to 7 months to go till the new crop comes available, this segment might get in trouble and we will see a two tire market: premium prices for ‘light’; bargains for ‘combo’/’domestic’ material.
A 90K purchasing program for the schools by the government has given the industry again somewhat more self-confidence.
However the vast quantity of combo material shall have to be moved and usually if demand is stagnating, only a lower price may open the market, being an old economic law we were taught at school.
Chile is struggling: a record crop is available, but price gap with other origins is rather big for the higher end qualities.
It is hard for them – at least in this early stage of the season – to accept lower levels, as they are convinced, they can achieve a premium for the higher quality from Chile.
In theory they are right, however the world supply – including a record crop from Chile – is growing, so it needs better prices to move a larger quantity (same teacher….)